LatinNews Daily - 06 January 2022 |
Main Briefing |
VENEZUELA: Gov’t issues stringent conditions for resumption of dialogue |
On 5 January the president of Venezuela’s national assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, conditioned any resumption of dialogue with the opposition on various steep demands. Analysis: Rodríguez’s demands – that the US release Alex Saab, an alleged money launderer for President Nicolás Maduro’s government, and that the opposition accepts criminal wrongdoing over its management of Venezuela’s seized foreign assets – are extremely unlikely to be met. In some ways, the government’s need for dialogue has subsided. Venezuela’s economy is showing small signs of recovery after years of catastrophic decline, reducing the urgency to lift sanctions; meanwhile, the opposition’s decision to participate in November’s regional elections, which saw gains for the ruling Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (PSUV), has enabled Maduro to present the party’s tight grip over the country’s institutions as legitimate.
Looking Ahead: Should the government stand by its decision to condition renewed dialogue on Saab’s release, it will have effectively ruled out any prospect for a resumption of negotiations in the coming months. No date has yet been set for Saab’s trial. |
Andean |
In brief: Inflation rises in Colombia |
* Colombia’s national statistics department (Dane) has released the latest figures for the consumer price index (IPC), showing that inflation increased by 0.73% in December compared to the previous month. In year-on-year terms, inflation was up 5.62% on December 2020. Dane stated that inflation in December was principally driven by price increases for food and non-alcoholic drinks (+17.23% year-on-year) and restaurants and hotels (+8.83%). The two categories that saw annual deflation in December were information and communication (-12.1%) and clothing and shoes (-2.6%). The 5.62% annual inflation rate was the highest in Colombia since 2016, and was significantly above the central bank (BCR)’s target rate of 3%. |
Brazil |
BRAZIL: São Paulo precandidate targeted in police investigation |
On 5 January, Márcio França, a former governor of the Brazilian state of São Paulo (2018-2019), denounced a police investigation against him for alleged corruption as political persecution. Analysis: França, who was elected vice-president of São Paulo state in 2014 but took on the top job for nine months after Geraldo Alckmin stepped down to run in the 2018 presidential election, is expected to run for the São Paulo governorship in this October’s general election. He represents the centre-left Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB). If the corruption allegations and police investigation go any further, they could damage his electoral chances and shift the prospects for the São Paulo gubernatorial race.
Looking Ahead: There is speculation that Alckmin may be joining the PSB to run as Lula’s vice-presidential candidate in October, an alliance which would increase França’s chances of winning the São Paulo race – if his reputation has not taken too much of a hit from the corruption allegations. |
In brief: Carnival cancellations multiply in Brazil |
* After the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro announced that street carnival celebrations would not be permitted this year over concerns with the spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19), notably the omicron variant of the virus, a number of other cities have cancelled part or all of the culturally and economically significant event. The municipalities of Maceió (Alagoas state), Recife, and Olinda (both Pernambuco state) all announced on 5 January the cancellation of official carnival events, which would have been held in the last week of February and first of March. In Olinda, the mayor Lupércio Carlos do Nascimento announced that financial aid would be put in place to compensate artists and street sellers whose livelihoods depend upon the annual event. In São Paulo, where authorities have yet to make a decision about whether to hold carnival celebrations and under which format, a group representing 250 street parades (‘blocos’) has announced they will not be participating due to public health concerns. Salvador in Bahia state, one of the main carnival destinations after Rio, had earlier confirmed the cancellation of its carnival programme. |
Central America & Caribbean |
CUBA: Gov’t on defensive over renewed press freedom concerns |
On 5 January Cuba’s representative to the United Nations (UN), Juan Antonio Quintanilla, rejected a tweet from UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights Defenders Mary Lawlor condemning the expulsion of two journalists from Cuba. Analysis: The ejection of two journalists – Esteban Rodríguez and Héctor Luis Valdés – is creating new problems for the Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) government which has faced continued international condemnation and sanctions over its crackdown on dissidents following the unprecedented July 2021 protests over economic, health and political grievances and ahead of planned protests for November 2021, which it thwarted.
Looking Ahead: The renewed focus on press freedom in Cuba, which also drew concern following the approval of a new cybersecurity law in August, comes as the government is already under pressure over human rights; most recently on 1 January US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Brian Nichols called on the government to “immediately release all those convicted for peaceful protest” noting that over 600 political prisoners are still behind bars. |
In brief: Panama tallies cost of pandemic response |
* Panama’s Vice President José Gabriel Carrizo has said that the government led by President Laurentino Cortizo assigned US$3.54bn in total to go on its response to the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in 2020 and 2021. Of the total, he said that US$2.1bn corresponded to financing the Plan Panamá Solidario programme, which provides assistance to those affected by the pandemic in the form of food bags and money transfers, as well as “other activities”. |
Mexico |
MEXICO: FGR charges former Pemex director? |
On 5 January, Mexican judicial sources confirmed to national media that the federal attorney general’s office (FGR) had requested a prison sentence of up to 39 years for Emilio Lozoya, the former director of Mexico’s state-oil company (Pemex) (2012-2016) for his alleged role in the Odebrecht corruption scandal.?? Analysis:? The case against Lozoya, who stands accused of receiving bribes of at least US$10m from Brazilian engineering firm Odebrecht, has been dragging its heels for the past year-and-a-half after Lozoya struck a plea-bargain deal with the FGR. The arrest and now charging of Lozoya suggests the evidence he promised of the scheme’s beneficiaries has not materialised. The development is good news for President Andrés Manual López Obrador’s government, which had been criticised for lack of progress in the case.?
Looking Ahead: According to reports, the indictment against Lozoya was presented to José Artemio Zúñiga Mendoza, the judge at the Reclusorio Norte prison where Lozoya is being held. Zúñiga must notify the defence in the next ten days about the opening of the trial. This latest development suggests that progress is finally being made in the high-profile case.?? |
In brief: Mexico reports record year for formal job creation |
* Mexico’s national social security institute (IMSS) has released a new report which shows that 846,416 jobs were created in the formal sector in 2021, a 4.3% increase on the previous year. This is the biggest yearly increase the IMSS has ever recorded. According to the same report, as of 31 December 2021, the IMSS had registered a total of 20.6m jobs – a decrease of 1.5% on the previous month. Despite this, the number of jobs exceeds that observed before the start of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic in March 2020. |
Southern Cone |
CHILE: Quinteros elected new constituent convention president |
On 5 January, after an 18-hour session and nine voting rounds, Chile’s 155-member constituent convention (CC) elected María Elisa Quinteros as its new president; she will lead its effort to draft a new constitution by July. Analysis: The CC was elected last year and has been given 12 months (running to 5 July) to complete a new constitutional draft, which is to be submitted to a referendum at some point in the second half of this year. For the first six months it was led by Elisa Loncón, a Mapuche academic and activist. The election of a new leader at the halfway point had always been expected.
Looking Ahead: Quinteros and her vice-president (whose election was still pending at the time of writing) will face a big political challenge this year, since drafting each of the articles of the new constitution will require a two-thirds majority, or 104 votes. While the largest groups in the CC represent the centre, the left, and the independents, to achieve the necessary consensus, she will need to build bridges with conservative groups. |
In brief: Uruguay’s inflation outside of target range |
* Uruguay’s national statistics institute (INE) has released the latest figures on the consumer price index (IPC), which show that the country registered monthly inflation of -0.10% in December. This brings annual inflation in the 12 months to 7.96%, outside of the 3%-7% target range set by the central bank (BCU). |