Zelaya delays return to Honduras
On 1 July, the ousted president Manuel Zelaya delayed his planned return to Honduras by 72 hours (to Saturday 4 July), in line with the deadline set by the Organisation of American States (OAS) for his reinstatement. On the face of it, the face-off is nowhere near being resolved, with the rhetoric on both sides remaining defiant. However, Zelaya is in the stronger position and the coupsters, who acted precipitately and will struggle to withstand the intense international pressure now being brought to bear upon them, will ultimately have to accept some form of OAS-negotiated solution. Analysts are also watching very closely the tactics of the US Barack Obama administration in this crisis, seeing it as an important test of its stated new multilateral-led approach to Latin American affairs.

Is Latin America about to go backwards?

The World Bank has produced a useful analysis of the magnitude of the economic shock that hit the region when the global economic crisis detonated. If anything, we would say that the Bank is underestimating the effects on Latin America. A economically floundering region is likely to become more unstable.

Zelaya ousted in civil-military coup amid institutional crisis
Honduran President Manuel Zelaya was toppled in a civil-military coup on 28 June. This was the same day he had called for a referendum on the desirability of reforming the constitution. The referendum did not take place. The military burst into the presidential palace and seized Zelaya in his pyjamas. He was bundled on to a plane and flown to Costa Rica. The head of congress, Roberto Micheletti, donned the presidential sash and set about trying to justify the coup on constitutional grounds amid international condemnation.

Kirchners’ mid-term defeat opens up political field

The government’s comprehensive defeat in the 28 June mid-term congressional elections has redrawn Argentina’s political map. President Cristina Fernández lost her majority in both houses of congress, and her husband and the government’s leading candidate, former president Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), was beaten into a humiliating second place in the decisive Buenos Aires province race. Kirchner has since resigned his presidency of the ruling Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), and with it his ambitions to succeed his wife in 2011. A power struggle within the PJ will follow, as various factions jostle to form the basis of a “post-Kirchnerista” Peronism ahead of presidential and congressional elections in 2011. Among those to emerge from the election strengthened are three presidential hopefuls: the mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri; the dissident Peronist senator, Carlos Reutemann; and the anti-K vice president, Julio Cobos.

Why families are important

This Special Report is the first of two which surveys the role of families in the region. This report looks at dynasties in Mexico, Central America and parts of the Caribbean. The second report will look at dynasties in South America.

Convulsion in the Amazon shakes Peru’s García
Peru’s police force suffered the greatest number of casualties ever in one single day in early June. This did not come about as a result of an engagement with Sendero Luminoso guerrillas but rather in a violent clash with indigenous protesters in the northern department of Amazonas. The government initially blamed indigenous groups for the scale of the violence but later conceded that the protests were a direct result of its failure to consult them about its plans to open up the area to private investment. President Alan García’s indecisive and inconsistent response to the violence has exposed his government as weak, and left his much-touted development strategy in tatters.

Funes takes reins of power in El Salvador

Mauricio Funes was sworn in as president of El Salvador on 1 June. He became the first left-wing president in the country’s history. In a well-crafted inaugural speech, Funes managed to make some pertinent gestures to the orthodox wing of the Frente Farabundo Martí para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN), which controls the deputies that make up his congressional support base, and assuage any fears that he might lurch violently to the Left upon assuming office. He singled out Brazil’s President Lula da Silva and US President Barack Obama, and not Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez, as his role models.

Crisis point

The forthcoming  mid term congressional elections on 5 July are likely to be much more of a challenge than the government imagined. The swelling support, even from experienced politicians, for the void-vote campaign shows that there is considerable unhappiness with the current political system.