Chávez raises stakes over regional elections after Santa Cruz referendum in Bolivia

The Bolivian department of Santa Cruz voted for autonomy on 4 May. It is not yet entirely clear what this means in practice but the government of President Evo Morales insists that the referendum lacks legitimacy (see page 3). What is clear is that the regional repercussions of the referendum are already being felt. Venezuela's President Hugo Chávez responded by seriously upping the ante ahead of regional and municipal elections in November. He accused the opposition of nurturing secessionist tendencies for the country's western states, including Zulia. Ecuador's President Rafael Correa, meanwhile, accused Guayaquil of forging a "separatist autonomy-seeking confederation" with Santa Cruz and Zulia.

Santa Cruz votes for autonomy in Bolivia

Following failed mediation attempts by both national and international organisations [AR-08-04], the 4 May vote on autonomy went ahead as planned in the wealthy eastern region of Santa Cruz. With the final results yet to be announced, preliminary figures showed 85% of voters backed the autonomy statute - a result which came as little surprise. The vote is not legally binding, but the mere fact that the autonomists held the referendum in comparative peace and managed to present a plausible result has strengthened their hand. While dismissing the vote as a "failure" in the light of high abstention levels, President Evo Morales has nevertheless left the door open to dialogue with the autonomists.

Government takes up EPR offer

On 29 April the government agreed to start talks, initially via intermediaries, with the Ejército Popular Revolucionario (EPR). The EPR, which had launched a closely targeted bombing campaign in 2007, agreed to a truce for the duration of the negotiations.

US influence in Latin America: waxing or waning?

Strictly speaking, influence is exerted 'unseen, except in its effects'. The extent to which the US has been resorting to overt entreating, cajoling and pressing in its dealings with Latin America is a sign that its influence, in this sense, has been waning. Even in the broader sense of getting others to do one's will, the last decade has shown it becoming far less effective. Only a few governments in the region have become openly hostile to the US, but political trends across the region show that goodwill towards Washington has dwindled far beyond that small group.

Correa, the Farc and relations with Colombia

Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa is still holding back from resuming diplomatic relations with Colombia. Though twice in recent weeks he appeared to be signalling a thaw, this was aborted by further exchanges of vitriol with his Colombian peer Álvaro Uribe. Correa's conditions for a rapprochement have shifted since the Colombian incursion of 1 March. They now seem confined to persuading Uribe not to continue alluding to Ecuador's 'permissiveness' towards Colombian guerrillas on the grounds that he has actually been stepping up military actions against the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). Correa delivered a warning that any further Farc presence in Ecuador will be considered an act of war.

How Latin America is coping with the US slowdown

Despite all the gloom in the US about the arrival of another Great Depression, there has been amazingly little effect on Latin America. Most international economists expected Mexico, which still sends 80% of its exports north to the US, to be buffeted by the US economy's abrupt switch onto a no-growth track. This has not happened, yet.

Fernández faces toughest test yet

President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner is facing her most serious challenge since taking office on 10 December; in response to the government announcement of a sharp tax increase on soya and sunflower seed products, the four farming unions staged the biggest protest action in Argentina since the financial crisis six years ago. The conflict has exposed serious political blunders and misjudgements on the part of Fernández, resulting in a considerable drop in her approval rating.

China overtakes Canada as main source of US imports
China overtook Canada to become the US's biggest source of imports for the first time, according to US official figures published last month. The figures, which are for the first nine months of 2007, come from the US Census Bureau and they put Chinese exports to the US at US$234.4bn for the first nine months, just ahead of Canada's US$232.6bn.