Even cynical political commentators who warn against reading too much into midterm or local elections are saying that a turning-point may have been reached in Jamaica. In the local contests held on 19 June, the opposition Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won 11 of the 12 parish councils plus the Kingston & St Andrew Corporation (KSAC).
The most eloquent direct point of comparison is provided by the previous round of local elections, in September 1998, when the ruling People's National Party (PNP) took all 12 councils and the KSAC.
It is only the second time since Jamaica's independence in 1962 that a governing party has lost the local government elections.
The PNP has been in power for 14 years. It was most recently returned for a fourth consecutive term only eight months ago. Technically, it does not have to worry about a general election until 2007.
However, what commentators are saying is ominous: that the most recent verdict of the electorate was not so much an endorsement of the JLP as a condemnation of the PNP.
Most irksome for most Jamaicans was the J$14.5bn tax drive sprung upon them recently by finance minister Omar Davies.
The JLP gained much political capital from Davies's admission earlier this year that the government had erred in its handling of the economy, and that this had led to a widening of the fiscal deficit. This prompted rating agencies to downgrade their outlooks on Jamaican debt. The JLP accused the PNP of misleading the public by campaigning on a platform of sound economic management in the general elections.
JLP strategists are already talking about launching a campaign to force the government into calling a general election within 18 to 24 months. JLP general secretary Ken Baugh is predicting that the economy will seize up within the next few months, and that this will generate social unrest that will force the government's hand. 'Events,' he says, 'are going to determine what is going to happen.'
His counterpart, PNP chairman Robert Pickering, says that this gamble on an early election is a 'recipe for pandemonium'.
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