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Caribbean & Central America - April 2012 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Two big victories in El Salvador – both could prove illusory

No sooner had the opposition emerged victorious in El Salvador’s legislative elections on 11 March than the government sought to steal its thunder with a far greater victory – a huge decrease in the murder rate. But, while the mathematics behind the number of seats the main right-wing opposition Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena) obtained in the 84-seat unicameral legislature has not been questioned, the mathematics behind the precipitous fall in the homicide rate in a murky episode involving the government, mara gangs and the Roman Catholic Church, certainly has been. Arena’s victory might ultimately count for little; the same, sadly, can probably be said for the fall in the murder rate.

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