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Weekly Report - 04 September 2014 (WR-14-35)
BRAZIL: Recession confirmed, but political impact limited
By generally agreed convention, a recession is two quarters of negative growth. As such, the news from the national statistics institute, Ibge, that Brazil’s economy shrank by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter, following a first quarter contraction of 0.2%, means that the country is in technical recession. However Guido Mantega, the finance minister, refuses to accept the term. “Recession is when unemployment increases and profits fall,” he said. While many economists would disagree with Mantega’s definition, it hints at the fact the recession may prove less politically toxic than the government’s foes might like.
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