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Special Report - Venezuela: will chavismo survive? (ISSN 17414474)
The recall referendum
Much of the political manoeuvring in Venezuela in 2016 has been around the opposition’s attempt to trigger a recall referendum that would force President Maduro to step down from office early – and the government’s opposing attempt to try and prevent it from doing so. Under article 72 of the constitution, drafted by chavista legislators, 20% of the registered electorate has the right to request a recall referendum after the mid-point in any presidency (the mid-point for Maduro’s six-year term has been deemed to be January 2016, in other words three years after the 10 January 2013 start of the last six-year term commenced, but never completed, by the late Hugo Chávez). Crucially, if such a referendum is held before the last two years of a president’s term in office, and is successful, new general elections must immediately be called. On the other hand, article 233 of the constitution states that if an incumbent president is removed for whatever reason (including a successful recall referendum) within the last two years of a presidency then he or she is simply replaced by the vice president, who serves out the rest of the original post-holder’s term with general elections taking place as originally scheduled. What this means is that if the opposition can win a recall referendum before January 2017, there will be immediate general elections and a chance for it to win power through peaceful means. But if the recall referendum takes place later, and is also successful, all it will achieve will be the removal of President Maduro; the PSUV administration will remain in power and Vice President Aristóbulo Isturiz will step up to the presidency for the last two years of the term.
