Development: Manfred Reyes Villa, the prefect of Cochabamba, sought sanctuary in the eastern city of Santa Cruz on 13 January.
Significance: Reyes Villa claimed that, following the confrontation between his supporters and those of the central government, which left two dead on 11 January, it was now too dangerous for him to return to Cochabamba. Reyes Villa is lodging with Bolivia's senior churchman, the cardinal archbishop of Santa Cruz, Julio Terrazas, who is mediating in the Cochabamba crisis. Terrazas's homily on 14 January seemed to be aimed at his houseguest: the cardinal said that he was shocked by the racist nature of the confrontations in Cochabamba. Reyes Villa and his supporters want to align Cochabamba, which straddles the country's main economic arteries, with the four whiter, and secessionist-minded, departments in the east of the country: Reyes Villa's opponents want Cochabamba to remain subservient to the indigenous-dominated central government in La Paz.
The government's supporters, led by the coca-growers, say that they will not leave Cochabamba until Reyes Villa has gone. The government's supporters did, however, lift their roadblocks which had sealed off the city's land communications for most of last week.
Reyes Villa is already making concessions. He said on 13 January that he would drop his idea of holding a referendum on autonomy. It was this initiative, announced on 4 January, which triggered the unrest in Cochabamba. Reyes Villa wanted a fresh referendum in Cochabamba to reverse the decision taken in the nationwide referendum held last July in which Cochabamba voted heavily (63%: 37%) against increased autonomy for the state. Only in the four secession-minded eastern departments (Santa Cruz, Beni, Pando and Tarija) was there a significant majority in the referendum in favour of increased autonomy. Exactly what the easterners mean by “increased autonomy" is far from clear, but the westerners fear that the easterners want to split the country. If Cochabamba, which links the Andean highlands to the fertile (and gas rich eastern lowlands), sides with the secessionists, the westerners would be unable to keep the country together. The other reason the westerners want the result of July referendum to remain definitive is that five of the country's nine departments voted against increased autonomy: if Cochabamba defects, the autonomists will then speak for a majority of departments.
President Evo Morales has also made a couple of interesting moves. On 12 January, he said that he would send a bill to congress that would allow recall referenda on presidents, departmental prefects and mayors. This would open the way to a political solution to the problem in Cochabamba. A recall referendum would either confirm Reyes Villa, elected in December 2005, in his post or eject him.
The other interesting point about the recall referendum proposal is that it demonstrates that President Morales is braced for the failure of the constituent assembly to change the constitution. He now believes that he can use congress, even though he does not have a majority in the senate, to make major changes to the country's constitutional arrangements.
Morales's Movimiento al Socialismo is making its final effort to get the constituent assembly to function this week. The assembly has been meeting in Sucre since August but has made no progress. This week the MAS says that it will call on the 21 committees of constituent assembly members to start coming up with constitutional amendments. If the opposition members of these committees fail to turn up, the MAS said that committees will carry on. The MAS has a majority, but not a two-thirds majority, of the 255 seats in the constituent assembly. The opposition claims that constitutional changes can only be made by a two-thirds majority.