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Development: On 6 May a majority of Ecuadoreans either voted against, voted blank or spoilt their ballot papers in the government's 10-point constitutional reform referendum, according to partial results from the official Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE).

Significance: The result, which is still not final as less than 40% of the votes have been counted, means that President Rafael Correa can no longer rely on elections and referendums to defeat his opponents. Formally, a narrow majority of voters (excluding blanks and spoilt votes) approved the proposed reforms but by a much smaller margin than the government expected. Correa's opponents clearly hope that this setback will tempt him to govern in a more authoritarian way.

Key points:

• The election looks clean because the official CNE results published so far contradict an exit poll from the government's favourite pollster, Santiago Pérez, which claimed that the government's "Yes" campaign had won 60:40. The final result is likely to be much closer: although the CNE figures show the government winning on all 10 questions, its victory is hollow because at 4.40am local time today (10.40am BST), if blanks and spoilt ballots are taken into account, a clear majority had not voted "Yes".

• The government was clearly defeated in several provinces on all 10 questions (notably the opposition heartland of Napo which is one of the few provinces where all the results are in). Even in Pichincha, which surrounds Quito, where less than 30% of the votes have been counted, the government is losing on Question Four, which would give it the authority to appoint (or sack) all judges for the next 18 months. The government is also losing on Question Seven which asked voters to approve the banning of commercial gambling.

• The government initially hailed its victory, following the exit poll, but as the full story unfolded yesterday (8 May), its reaction became more aggressive. Leading government figures said that they expected the opposition in congress, where Correa's majority is flimsy, to try to boycott congress. The government warned that if the opposition followed this strategy, it would use its powers to expel opposition members from congress. 

• Correa's opponents claim that the result of the wide ranging referendum will give the government huge, unquestioned powers to reform the judicial system and curb criticism in the media. The complicated 10-question consultation covered issues ranging from judicial reform to the definition of what constitutes an economic crime and whether bull-fighting and commercial gambling should be banned.

Pointer: It is easy to argue that Correa and the government are the consultation's losers. However, the winners are harder to find. Although the mayor of Guayaquil, Jaime Nebot, the standard bearer for the traditional opposition, claimed that his city rejected five of the government's proposals, at the provincial level, according to the CNE's still partial count, Guayas voted in favour of the government. If this proves to be the case, Nebot's threat to Correa's power will remain muted. A bigger winner from the consultation appears to be former president Lucio Gutiérrez (2003-2005), whom Correa defeated in the last (2009) presidential election. The provinces which supported Gutiérrez then, voted against Correa in yesterday's referendum.