Key assumptions
The following key assumptions form the background to our analysis of Africa and the region's evolving position in global geostrategy.
1. Africa has a reputation for extreme instability. Since 1990, there have been 19 conflicts in 17 locations in the region, with a peak in 1998-99 when there were 11 active conflicts in Africa. However, since 2000 there has been a constant decline in the number of conflicts in Africa.
2. Disease is an even greater problem for Africa than conflict. Sub-Saharan Africa is the region that has been most severely affected by HIV/Aids. According to the UN, 25.8m adults and children are infected with HIV in the region. Aids kills more Africans than conflict, and because of the Aids epidemic there are about 8.5m cases of tuberculosis in the region, killing 2m every year.
3. The international community is committed to establishing stability in Africa. Some 75% of UN resources, both personnel and peacekeeping budgets, are devoted to Africa.
4. The strategic importance of Africa has been steadily increasing for two main reasons: its natural resources and the war on terrorism. China, in particular, has taken an increasing interest in Africa's raw materials (especially, but not exclusively, oil).
5. The fault line between Christianity and Islam that runs through Africa makes it a region of particular significance in the war on terrorism.
6. Africa's growing importance as a source of natural resources and its role in the war on terrorism interlock because of fears that China's pursuit of raw materials is leading it to prop up unsavoury regimes.
Our evolving analysis can be tracked by viewing the Courcy's Intelligence Analysis link in this report.