Brazil and Cuba strengthen relations
Development: Brazil's President, Lula da Silva, arrived in La Havana on the evening of 14 January for a 24-hour visit.
Significance: It has been four years since Lula last visited Cuba; and Brazil-Cuba bilateral relations have not been at their best. Indeed, as the Brazilian press pointed out, the ailing Cuban leader Fidel Castro "has not been seen in public in the past year, but found time to criticise Brazil's ethanol" accord with the US, signed in March last year. In an article, Fidel claimed that ethanol, which is made of crops such as sugar cane and maize, would "lead to famine worldwide".
Lula has kept his distance from Fidel ever since, but has continually defended Cubans' right to self-determination with regards to the power transition taking place in the island: In July 2006 Fidel handed over day-to-day power to his younger brother, Raúl. The power transition is expected to be completed in March this year, following next week's elections for the Cuban congress and, subsequently, congress' selection of the cabinet and president to lead the island over the next five years. Fidel has been chosen as Cuba's President in this way since 1976, but it is most likely that Raúl will be chosen for the top job this time.
The political transition is expected to prompt an economic opening in Cuba. Indeed, Raúl has already given signals that this is his plan. The opening will entail subscribing partnerships with foreign companies to boost the island's economy. The current partnership with Venezuela's state oil company, Pdvsa, is expected to be the example for others to follow. For Brazil, the prospect of an economic opening in Cuba is very attractive, even though currently trade relations with Cuba are minute. For Cuba, however, Brazil is its fourth biggest trade partner in the Americas after Venezuela, Canada and the US.
According to reports in the Brazilian press, Lula will sign deals worth US$800m, of which US$100m will be in agriculture. Deals will also include investments in health, mining and tourism. The most important deal, however, will be the return of Petrobras, Brazil's state-controlled energy company, to Cuba. Petrobras withdrew from the island in 2001 after three unsuccessful years trying to find oil in Cuba's offshore. Foreign oil companies, however, have once again started to flood in.
Lula will have two audiences with Raúl during his time in Cuba. A meeting with Fidel, although expected, had not yet been confirmed.