US policy towards Russia may have negative impact on US-India relations
Few doubt that the United States and China are locked into a long-term struggle for power. Last week’s reaction by Washington to the UK’s decision to join the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was symptomatic of US fears and sensitivities, with a US official telling the Financial Times: “We are wary about a trend toward constant accommodation of China, which is not the best way to engage a rising power.” But the struggle for power with China is not the only major geopolitical development with which US policymakers are struggling. There are four other geopolitical developments impinging on US strategic thinking, namely the inability to stabilize the Middle East; the push-back by Russia against the perceived hegemonism of the Western powers; the European Union’s lack of coherence, fed by its economic problems; and the rise of India. Of these, the first three have a negative impact on the US’s ability to rise to the challenge of China. However, in the context of US-China relations, the fourth development – the rise of India – is broadly seen as positive. But this may be a mistaken assumption, at least for as long as the US continues to raise its level of antagonism towards Russia.
India’s growing importance was highlighted this week by the completion by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of a ground-breaking tour of the Indian Ocean. Modi has been pushing for increased security cooperation with the Seychelles and Mauritius, where India’s influence has long been significant. But he has also made steps towards improving ties with Sri Lanka, long bedevilled by the Tamil question. His visit was the first by an Indian prime minister for 30 years, and he was clearly determined to capitalize on the stated intent of Sri Lanka’s new president, Maithripala Sirisena, to “correct” Sri Lanka’s pro-Beijing orientation. Modi wants to exploit the shift in mood within Colombo to mould the Indian Ocean-5 (India, the Maldives, Sri Lanka, Seychelles, and Mauritius) into a coherent pro-India power bloc capable of resisting Chinese encroachments. China, of course, has long-standing ties with Pakistan, and there have also been reports that the Chinese navy may be seeking access to port facilities at Walvis Bay in Namibia. Modi’s moves are intended to counter this.
All of this looks relatively positive for the US in terms of the challenge from China, but at least some well-placed sources say that Washington may be misreading Delhi. We think it would be going too far to argue (as some do) that India could eventually align itself with both China and Russia in an anti-US coalition; but we do believe that the US may be underestimating the strength of India-Russia ties and the damage that current US policies towards Russia could do to US-India relations. We believe that India’s ostensible alignment with the US, Japan, and Australia against China has had the effect of obscuring this underlying truth. It should be remembered, for instance, that Modi has recently referred to Russia as a “pillar of strength” for India and has said that Moscow remains India’s “most important defence partner”. Russia has supplied much of India’s military hardware, is supplying most of its nuclear reactors, and plays a significant role in its military-industrial complex.
We have argued in the past that Western post-Cold War policy towards Russia and its near abroad must take some of the blame for the present very fraught state of affairs. The collapse in Western relations with Russia is, of course, also having a negative effect on issues such as Iran and Syria. Over time, India-US relations may need to be added to score sheet of negative fall-out.
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