Boko Haram, Russia's 'traitors', Mideast complexities, Argentina turns to China
Evidence of growing Islamic State influence over Boko Haram
For some time there have been fears that the Nigerian Islamist movement Boko Haram may become aligned with the Mideast-centred Islamic State (IS). The recently increased sophistication of Boko Haram’s social media activities suggests this is now happening.
In January, Boko Haram launched a Twitter feed in Arabic called Urwah al-Wuthqa, and this was immediately picked up and promoted by IS-aligned outlets. Terrorism experts say the feed shows clear evidence of links with IS media operatives, including the regular use of Twitter to claim the success of operations and the publishing of photographs of militants and claims about the territory it controls. The quality of its video releases has also improved, with much more professional graphics, and the use of subtitles in English, Arabic, French, and Hausa.
There were clear similarities between Boko Haram’s latest video showing the beheading of two ‘spies’ and IS’s own beheading videos. As one specialist analyst says: “The staging, slow motion techniques, and sound effects made the film look more like an IS production than a traditional Boko Haram video”.
It is unlikely to be a coincidence that Boko Haram increasingly refers to itself as “Islamic State in West Africa”. However, although Islamic State has claimed recently to have received a pledge of allegiance from jihadists in Nigeria, it has not yet claimed that Boko Haram as a group has formally pledged allegiance. In other words, while the evidence of increasing collaboration is mounting, it is still too early to talk about formal linkages.
The Kremlin’s ‘traitor’ list
Boris Nemtsov, the Russian opposition politician shot dead in Moscow on 27 February, was one of the ‘national traitors’ referred to by President Vladimir Putin in his speech to parliament in March 2014 following the annexation of the Crimea. But he was not the only one to be fingered by the Kremlin.
In his March 2014 address to parliament, Putin warned of “actions by a fifth column, national traitors of various kinds”. This was followed by the appearance of giant posters in Moscow showing the faces of so-called traitors. Featured with Nemtsov were popular rock singers Andrey Makarevich and Yuriy Shevchuk, anti-corruption campaigner Aleksey Navalnyy, and opposition politician Ilya Ponomarev (the only member of the State Duma to vote against the annexation of Crimea). The poster caption read: “The fifth column. Aliens among us.” Another poster added the faces of writers Boris Akunin and Dmitriy Bykov.
These and other enemies of the Kremlin are making it known that they now fear for their lives. For instance, former deputy prime minister Alfred Kokh, now in exile in Germany, has told German media outlets: “I’m afraid I’ll be next...Nemtsov won’t be the last…”
Complexity upon complexity in the Middle East
The complexity of Middle Eastern politics includes the fact that the Sunni powers, although opposed to the advances made by Islamic State (IS) in Iraq and Syria, are equally fearful that Iran is benefitting from the fight to defeat IS. The Sunni powers also continue to be divided between those who support the Muslim Brotherhood (principally Turkey and Qatar) and those who oppose it, such as the military-backed regime in Cairo and Saudi Arabia. There are signs that Saudi Arabia’s new king, Salman Bin Abd-al-Aziz, is trying to square the circle. The visits to Saudi Arabia by Egyptian President Abd-al-Fattah al-Sisi and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for talks with the king have prompted speculation of a new Saudi initiative to counter Iranian expansionism.
Turkey and Egypt, of course, remain at odds over the ousting of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) from power in Egypt, and it is this rift that the new Saudi king appears to be attempting to mend. The pro-government Al-Watan newspaper emphasized the importance of “curbing the Iranian role and preventing it from tampering with its neighbours” and it warned against “attempts to drive a wedge to create tension between Saudi Arabia and Egypt through giving a false impression to the public opinion that Saudi-Turkish rapprochement will be at the expense of sisterly Egypt”.
Fear of Iranian advances seems to be trumping Riyadh’s antipathy to the MB, particularly in Yemen where the MB-affiliated Islah movement (along with the Aden-based government of President Hadi) has lost ground to the pro-Iranian Huthis. Islah’s political and military setback followed its loss of Saudi patronage last year and its designation as a terrorist movement along with the MB. But then last month Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Saud al-Faysal announced that Saudi Arabia has “no problem with the Muslim Brotherhood”, suggesting a shift in policy. Now the Huthis, fearing renewed Saudi support for Islah and Sunni tribal opposition, are turning to Iran for increased support. An agreement for direct flights between Tehran and Huthi-controlled Sanaa was signed on 28 February, and on 1 March amid much publicity a shipment of Iranian medical aid was flown into Sanaa. A high-ranking Huthi delegation flew to Tehran on 1 March.
They are also turning to Russia. At the end of February, another Huthi delegation was despatched to Moscow in, it was reported by Kommersant on 25 February, an attempt to secure recognition in return for offering oil-concessions to Russian companies. It is thought that Moscow might see this as a means of gaining leverage over Riyadh (with which it is at odds over oil policy).
The complexity of the calculations faced by Saudi Arabia was further illustrated by the news on 3 March that Egypt has agreed to increase military cooperation with Russia, including the holding of a joint naval exercise in the Mediterranean. The TASS news agency reported that “Russia and Egypt are planning to sign a treaty on military cooperation which will define the long-term vector of collaboration between the two countries”. Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoygu was reported as saying that Egypt is Russia’s leading partner in the Middle East and that Moscow “is firmly intent on continuing effective cooperation”.
Argentina looking at Chinese jet fighters
A technical delegation from the Argentine air force is due to travel to China to assess the possibility of buying Chinese jet fighters to replace ageing French Mirage fighters. It is thought that Argentina is talking about buying between 14 and 20 FC-1/F-17 Thunder fighters. Another option under consideration is the Chengdu J-10B,which is said to be capable of challenging the UK’s Typhoon fighters stationed in the Falkland Islands. Argentina is also talking to China about the supply of offshore patrol vessels, a polar icebreaker exploration vessel, and a 21-ton infantry armoured vehicle Norinco VN1 8x8.
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