Key assumptions
The following key assumptions form the background to our analysis of Latin America and the Caribbean and the region's evolving position in global geostrategy:
For all that it has in common, Latin America and the Caribbean cannot be viewed as a unit. It is best viewed as three large blocs: South America, Mexico & Central America (plus, increasingly, the Dominican Republic ), and the English-speaking Caribbean. In this scenario, Cuba is an outlier.
The main (but not sole) distinguishing factor is the relationship with the US. This is closest in Mexico & Central America, loosest in South America, with the English-speaking Caribbean somewhere in between. The weight of South America in regional forums such as the Organisation of American States acts as a check on US initiatives.
Cutting across blocs, Cuba and Venezuela find common ground in their hostile relationships with the US — political and economic in the case of the former, mainly political in that of the latter. To an extent, Bolivia can be seen as sharing this common ground. Venezuela under Hugo Chávez seeks to win over the rest of the region, under the banner of the ‘Bolivarian revolution’, to this stance. The US has been seeking to counter this and isolate Venezuela .
Brazil, while not an undisputed leader, acts as the fulcrum of ‘soft’ opposition to the US, in both economic and political matters. Under Lula da Silva, Brazil emerged as a counterweight to Chávez’s influence.
Beyond Colombia, and to a far lesser extent Peru, the region is not threatened by insurgencies. In both Colombia and Peru, armed insurgency has become intertwined with the drugs trade, a phenomenon largely determined by the pull of the main consumer market, the US. The drugs trade has also led to the appearance of armed gangs whose activities have come to challenge the authority of the state in Brazil ’s main cities and in much of Mexico. It has likewise become a strong influence on the street gangs known as ‘maras’, which have spread from their original bases in the US to pose a major threat to public security across much of Central America and parts of Mexico.
Illegal emigration from Mexico to the US is a growing cause of friction, exacerbated by the US emphasis on border control as a major security imperative, and the move to erect physical barriers along much of its border with Mexico .
International terrorism has been almost completely absent from the region, beyond some financial support for Lebanese organisations classified as terrorist by the US, and the outreach of Colombian guerrilla organisations. There have been no incidents classifiable as international terrorist attacks since 1994, nor have there been corroborated reports of attempts by international terrorists to enter the US via Latin America.