Mexico & NAFTA

Items

  • MEXICO: Wayne testifies

    LatinNews 22 July 2011 Hits: 1501

    The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, perhaps unconsciously, gave a clear indication of how it views Mexico when it held its nomination hearings for Earl Anthony Wayne, the next US ambassador to Mexico, simultaneously with those for Arnold Chacon, the nominee as US ambassador to Guatemala. Indeed, Richard Lugar (R, Indiana), the ranking Republican on the committee, in his opening statement on 20 July, drew several parallels between Mexico and Guatemala.

    Lugar did, however, sugar this allusion by pointing out that the US was more fortunate than most “Great Powers” to have Mexico and Canada as its neighbours, which both historically have provided regional stability. Lugar indicated there were now questions about Mexico’s stability. The three senators who asked most of the questions during Wayne’s two-hour session were: Lugar; Marco Rubio (R, Florida); and Robert Menéndez (D, New Jersey). It seems almost certain that the Senate will approve of Wayne’s nomination before the summer recess, likely to be delayed until 6 August because of current difficulties in extending the US’s debt ceiling.

    Wayne is a career member of the State Department. He has served as ambassador to Argentina (2006-2009) and his last job was as deputy head of mission in Afghanistan.

    Wayne, in his testimony, promised, as Lugar advocated, to support the Iniciativa Mérida, which has channelled US money into combating the drug trade in Mexico and Central America. Wayne said that, despite ongoing criticisms of the Iniciativa Mérida, he expected it to continue beyond the 2012 elections. In 2012, both the US and Mexico will hold presidential and congressional elections. Wayne also firmly backed President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa’s war on organised crime, which as led to over 34,000 violent deaths in Mexico since Calderón declared it on 1 December 2006. In response to a question from Menéndez, Wayne admitted that there had been criticism of the violence in Mexico, but said that he did not see any alternative to Calderón’s use of the military against the drug trafficking gangs and claimed that there was a “strong consensus” among political leaders in Mexico that the war had to continue.

    Wayne said that one change he would make is to work with both US and Mexican officials for faster disbursement of the money under the Iniciativa Mérida. Currently (end June 2011), only US$465m has been disbursed (of the US$1.3bn authorised since the programme was launched in 2008) but the administration hopes that US$900m will have been disbursed by the end of the year. It is not clear whether this end year is the current fiscal year (30 September 2011) or the calendar year.

    Wayne implied that that thanks to the Iniciatiava Mérida, Mexico had taken out of circulation (i.e. killed or arrested) around 30 leading gangsters. He said a lot of the operations which caught of killed the gangsters were the result of information being shared between Mexico and the US. He also noted that the US has supplied Mexico with 11 helicopters under the Iniciativa Mérida and provided training for over 13,000 Mexican law enforcement personnel.

    While Wayne was speaking, elsewhere on Capitol Hill, the House of Representatives’ foreign relations committee, which is controlled by the Republicans, was in fact trimming US aid being delivered under the Iniciativa Mérida. A proposal from Michael McCaul (R, TX) to halve the cost of training aid provided under the Iniciativa Mérida in the 2012 financial year (which starts on 1 October), was passed and will go to the full House and then the Senate.

    More controversially, Wayne said that if he were confirmed as ambassador, he would do all he could to ensure that covert operations such as Fast & Furious -in which the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms (ATF) encouraged Mexican gangs in a “sting operation” to buy high powered weapons in the US, in an effort to uncover the networks which armed the gangs- “never took place” again. In fact, what happened was that the ATF tracking scheme failed and over 1,200 of the 1,800 guns that had been sold to known associates of gangsters were lost. At least one was used to kill as US Border Patrol officer.

    The Republicans in both the House of Representatives and the Senate are alleging that the government of President Barack Obama is covering up a major scandal by concealing information on Fast & Furious. Senator Charles Grassley (R, IA), the senior Republican on the Judicial committee, and Representative Darrell Issa, (R, CA), who is also chairman of the House  Oversight & Government Reform Committee, are heading the Republican investigation into Fast & Furious, holding a series of hearings. Both politicians have sent letters to Robert Mueller, the head of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and Michelle Leonhart, the head of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), to ask them what they knew about Fast & Furious. On 4 July, the legislators wrote to Eric Holder, the attorney general, after the acting head of the ATF, Kenneth Melson, told them in a closed session that the Department of Justice had instructed him not to give testimony in public. The letter published tracts of Melson’s testimony in which he described the Department of Justice’s attempts to conceal evidence.

  • MEXICO: Is Calderón going to back an independent?

    LatinNews 22 July 2011 Hits: 1859

    On 20 July three separate political events occurred which suggest that President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa is again contemplating backing an independent candidate in next year’s presidential elections.

    The three events were:  first Javier Sicilia’s bursting in on congress, which is not in session to demand that congress approve independent candidacies. The second was the announcement by the labour minister, Javier Lozano, that he would not stand for the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN)’s presidential nomination. The thirds was a strange agreement by the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI)’s leader in the lower chamber to surrender his trump political card: the vetting of the budget.

    President Calderón has flirted with the idea of backing an independent candidate before, but until the catastrophic (for him and the PAN) result of the 3 July election in the Estado de México, he had also paid lip service to the idea of the PAN picking a candidate. Since the Estado election, only Santiago Creel, whom Calderón defeated for the PAN nomination in 2005, has declared himself.

    Other possible PAN candidates have yet to rush forward. Calderón’s rumoured preferred candidate is the current economy minister, Ernesto Cordero, but he has yet to make a move. He has never run for public or legislative office.

    What makes Sicilia’s move possibly significant is that he has met Calderón at least three times this year. Sicilia, who heads an NGO, the Movimiento por la Paz con Justicia y Dignidad, sprung to prominence when his son, Juan Francisco, was gunned down in Morelos in March alongside six other youngsters.

    Although Sicilia has been a critic of Calderón’s war on organised crime, he does tick at least one of the boxes Calderón cares about: he is devout Roman Catholic. One of Calderón’s big difficulties in endorsing Marcelo Ebrard, the increasingly moderate and alliance-minded mayor of Mexico City, is that Ebrard is an enthusiastic supporter of socially-liberal policies such as legalising same-sex marriage and abortion.

    With his NGO, Sicilia has managed to organise several mass (100,000 plus) demonstrations and a couple of trans-state marches, gaining access to people who can finance and manage hi eventual political campaign. What is interesting is that Sicilia burst into congress to campaign for independent presidential candidacies, not to demand a change in security policy, which has been his main calling card. Congress has stalled on the independent candidates’ legislation and allowing limited re-election.

    The decision by the PRI leader in the lower chamber, Francisco Rojas, to allow PRI governors, party officials and senators to determine the PRI’s line on the next budget is perplexing. Rojas is close to former president Carlos Salinas (1988-1994) who in turn is one of the closest backers of Enrique Peña Nieto, the PRI front-runner for the presidency. Yet by allowing PRI senators a say, Rojas is boosting Peña Nieto’s only internal rival, Manlio Fabio Beltrones. A split in the PRI would boost the chances of an independent candidate.

    It does seem clear that Calderón would like to see the proposal, to allow independent candidates to run, approved. On 14 July he met Rojas, who due to the PRI’s effective majority in the lower house has a veto on the proposal, to discuss what shape an extraordinary session would take.

    Besides considering independent candidacies, an extraordinary session is also required to get the labour and security reforms the government has advocated into law. Rojas’s refusal to cooperate with the government suggests that Peña Nieto does not want any surprises, particularly no independent “Stop the PRI” presidential candidate, as he moves towards the elections in July 2012.

    The week before, Calderón appeared to have secured the support of another PRI grandee, Manlio Fabio Beltrones, to an extraordinary session.

    Without an extraordinary session, congress will reconvene on 1 September. By tradition, the autumn session focuses on the budget. This year’s budget, which is the penultimate Calderón will draw up, will be particularly important.

    • Overall incomes fall

    The national statistics agency, Inegi, reported that Mexican household income fell 12.3% overall between 2008 and 2010.  In the decade after the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) first won the presidency in 2000, Mexico’s population grew by 1.4% per annum, while the economy has averaged real annual GDP growth of 1.6%. This means that per capita GDP growth has been just 0.2%. Such a dismal performance means that the PAN is unlikely to retain the presidency in the scheduled 2012 elections.

    • Variations by income level

    The national statistics agency, Inegi, classifies as middle class those households with monthly incomes of M$13,000-M$39,000 (US$1,105-US$3,315). It reckons that households with incomes of over M$39,300 saw a 17.8% drop in their incomes, while the poorest 10% (with an income of less than M$2,054 (US$174) a month) saw a drop of 7.4% between 2008 and 2010.

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    LatinNews 22 July 2011 Hits: 1515

    MEXICO| Security. On 18 July the state prosecutor in the Estado de México arrested an unnamed deputy police chief accused of organising the massacre of 11 people. The current governor of the Estado is Enrique Peña Nieto, who heads the opinion polls for the 2012 presidential election. His men are taking charge of this potential scandal, which could involve gangs in the Estado, an area hitherto been free of them. A lot of political commentators expect the federal government to make a move against Peña Nieto, probably after he hands over as governor in November, to try to knock him out of the presidential running. In 2004 and 2005 President Vicente Fox (2000-2006) tried something similar to knock out the then opinion poll frontrunner, Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
    It is not clear who the policeman arrested is, or where he worked. The state prosecutor said that he was investigating the murder of 11 people in the Valle de Chalco. He said that another eight people had also been arrested.

    MEXICO| Security. On 20 July the federal Procuraduría General de la República (the attorney general’s office) finally released Gregorio ‘Greg’ Sánchez, a former Partido de la Revolución Democrática mayor of Cancún, who was cleared of money laundering charges and of working with the Beltrán Leyva and Los Zetas drugs gangs. Although Sánchez is free, he will have to wear an electronic bracelet, so that the authorities can track him.