Nafta Report

Items

  • TRANSPORT: US forced to back down on lorries

    05 May 2011 Hits: 262

    The US Supreme Court ruled on 7 June that the US government did not need to carry out a more thorough environmental impact assessment of the effect Mexican lorries would have on US air quality when they use US roads. The court decision opens the way for Mexican lorries to use US roads. The Supreme Court decision was based on the narrow premise that federal agencies could not be used to delay a presidential decision merely on procedural grounds.  

    The unanimous decision by the supreme court overturned a decision by a San Francisco appeals court in January 2003. The appeals court had upheld the claim by environmentalists and others that the US Department of Transport should conduct a widespread and thorough survey of the effect Mexican lorries would have on air quality in the US before obeying President George Bush's decision of November 2002 to allow Mexican lorries to use US roads. The US Transport Secretary, Norman Mineta, said that the administration would now move forward on implementing the commitment, enshrined in the Nafta treaty but ignored by the US, to allow Mexican lorries to use US roads freely. A Nafta disputes settlement panel had ruled in 2001 that the US was not complying with its obligations under the treaty.  

    Since 1982 Mexican lorries have only been allowed to deliver goods 32km (20 miles) inside the US. Onward shipment required the use of a US lorry. The Supreme Court decision is, thus, a blow to the influential Teamsters Union, which dominates the US trucking industry. The decision is a boost to non-union haulage firms, such as Celadon, which will now be able to use cheaper Mexican lorries to deliver goods right across the US. US lorry drivers earn, on average, US$0.34 per mile (US$18.70 per hour); Mexican drivers get US$0.14 per mile.  

    The Supreme Court decision still means that Mexican haulage companies and lorries will not be allowed to handle intra-US business. There has to be a cross-border element. The decision is also a blow to several states which had backed the court action and the need for an environmental impact statement. California was one of nine states to call for such a statement; the state government said that the decision represented a backward step in the move towards cleaner air and healthier people. Mexican lorries are supposed to be older and dirtier than US ones. The US Department of Transport has already carried out a limited survey of the environmental effects of Mexican lorries. These lorries make 4.5m cross-border journeys each year.  

    What happens next
    The US government said that it will launch a consultation process with Mexico to draw up a system of security checks so that Mexican lorries can use US roads. What the US Department of Transport wants to agree is a schedule for the frequency of inspections and establish qualifications for the inspectors.  

    The president of the US Chamber of Commerce, Thomas Donohue, said that the Supreme Court decision puts an end to the delaying tactics employed by the opponents of Nafta. He added that these delays undermined US credibility because it frequently demanded that foreign countries should open their markets to US goods and services, in accordance with commercial agreements, yet when the US had to open its markets, under those same agreements, it refused.  

    The decision is important. The bulk of the trade in goods between the US and Mexico goes by road. Exactly how much is unclear. The US Chamber of Commerce reckons that at least 80% of the US$235bn of goods that are traded between the US and Mexico each year, go by road. The US Department of Transport put the value of the cross-border road traffic at US$161.5bn in 2002. Some environmentalists say that they may now try to use congress to thwart the Supreme Court decision. These environmentalists argue that the Supreme Court decision is only procedural. Congress could then introduce air quality legislation that would have the effect of preventing Mexican lorries from using US roads.  

    Consequences
    Mexican economists say that the decision will lower shipment costs from Mexican factories to US customers. This should help Mexican companies compete better against competition from China. The Mexican government claims that the US embargo on its lorries using US roads has cost its exporters billions of dollars.

    Telephone dispute also sorted
    The US and Mexican governments issued a joint statement on 1 June saying that neither of them would appeal against a World Trade Organisation ruling in a dispute over telecoms. US telecoms companies had complained that the Mexican regulatory system was biased against them. Under the terms of the deal, Mexico agreed to alter its rules on charging for long distance and international calls. In particular, the deal will end the practice under which the company with the biggest slice of the international business originating from Mexico (ie Telmex, the former state monopoly) represented the whole of the Mexican telecoms industry in international markets where prices were agreed for international calls. In these negotiations, the cost of connecting the call is allocated between the originating network and the connecting network. As the bulk of the international business between Mexico and the US involved Mexicans living in the US ringing Mexico, a business in which Telmex is active only at the Mexican end, the company was able, effectively, to penalise its two main competitors, Avantel and Alestra, which have major US telecoms companies as shareholders. Under the terms of the deal, Mexico has also agreed to allow telecoms companies to resell international-call capacity to third parties 13 months after the WTO sanctions the deal. This should make the Mexican international market more competitive. The main concession from the US, which represented US telecoms companies such as AT&T, is that it will stop by-pass deals. Under these, call traffic was passed off as data traffic and thus commanded a lower connection charge.
  • REMITTANCES: Rising remittances an electoral issue in the US

    05 May 2011 Hits: 208

    Remittances from Mexicans working in the US have increased by 24% in the first four months of this year compared with the same period of 2003. From January to April 2004, they came to US$4.65bn, the Banco de México reported. This is a new record.

    The recovery in the US economy is boosting remittances. In April 2004, they set a new monthly record of US$1.35bn. This was 28% up on the same month of 2003. In 2003, remittances from the US to Mexico came to US$13.2bn. They are now the country's second biggest source of hard currency, after oil exports. Remittances now exceed foreign direct investment. This year, the government is hoping that remittances will come to at least US$15bn. 

    The average remittance is now running at US$323, slightly above last year's US$312. The states which get the bulk of the remittances are along the west of the country: Michoacán, Guanajuato, Zacatecas and Jalisco. These four states account for half the inflow of remittances to Mexico. More importantly, migrants from these states can draw on networks in the US which can help them get established. According to research from the IDB, 25m Mexicans derive some benefit from remittances. The bulk of the money (78%) is used to finance their living standards. 

    In the US
    This flow of money from the US to Mexico is beginning to interest populist politicians. In two states, politicians have suggested taxing this flow. We reported in April that Pete Rí­os, a Democrat in Arizona, had tabled a bill in the state assembly to levy a tax on the remittance flow to Mexico. Now Tom Tancredo, a Republican congressman from California, is proposing to levy a 5% tax on remittances sent by all Latin Americans to their countries of origin. 

    Tancredo, who is an outspoken critic of any moves to improve immigrants' rights in the US, made his proposal, which is not yet a bill, on 18 May. On the same day the InterAmerican Development Bank reckoned that Latin American migrants in the US will remit a total of US$30bn this year. Tancredo said that the proceeds from his proposed 5% tax should go to the Department of Homeland Security and be used to improve border security. The National Immigration Forum, an NGO representing immigrants argues that Tancredo's proposal is unfair since migrant workers already make a contribution to the US tax system by paying sales tax. The NIF points out that a recent study by the National Academy of Sciences concluded that migrant workers contributed US$10bn a year to the US economy. This sum does not include the value of what they produce. The NAS pointed out that in 1997, migrant workers paid US$133bn in local, state and federal taxes. The IDB study reckons that 32% of all migrant-workers in the US are undocumented.

    Cyclical or non-cyclical?
    Economists argue that remittance flows are not cyclical and they will continue to grow. There is some evidence to suggest that in recent years the increasing use of electronic methods of remitting money has meant that official statistics on remittances have improved. This increased data captures accounts for part of the spectacular rise in remittance revenues. Previously, remittances came in the form of goods or cash: Mexicans living in the US would often buy a car in the US and then drive it home, leaving it for their families to use or sell. Such remittances were hard to pick up from official statistics. The main reason, however, for the increase in recent years is that the number of Mexicans working in the US has increased substantially. No one knows exactly how many Mexicans are living in the US: BBVA Bancomer reckons that in 2002 there were at least 9.5m Mexicans working in the US. In 1960 there were fewer than 600,000. Around 80% of Mexican migrants work in four US states: California, Texas, Illinois and Arizona. 

    Another factor boosting remittances is that the cost of actually sending the money home has started to fall substantially. The IDB reckons that the growth of the business, better technology and competition between companies seeking to break into the remittance business has led to a halving of transaction costs in recent years. These costs will fall even further under a US commitment made at the last Summit of the Americas. Academic research has shown that remittances are beginning to have a noticeable effect on education levels. Families supported by migrants tend to keep their children in school for a year longer than families which depend on the local economy.

  • DRUGS: Another Arellano Félix nabbed

    05 May 2011 Hits: 396
    The Mexican attorney general, Rafael Macedo de la Concha announced that the authorities had arrested Jorge Arellano Félix and Efraí­n Pérez Pasuengo on 3 June in Tijuana. They are among the chief lieutenants of Francisco Javier Arellano Félix, who still leads the Arellano Félix gang, also known as the Cartel de Tijuana. 

    Francisco Javier is still on the loose. Macedo claimed that he was now virtually on his own, without his lieutenants and heading a heavily denuded operation. Jorge Arellano Félix and Pérez were picked up in a joint operation with the US. The US Drug Enforcement Administration had offered US$5m for information leading to their capture. Besides contending with pressure from the authorities on both sides of the border, the Arellano Félix gang is also locked in a battle with the Cartel de Sinaloa, headed by Ismael 'El Mayo' Zambrano. The gangs are fighting for control of the lucrative business of supplying cocaine and marijuana to the west of the US. 

    Larry Holyfield, the director of the Mexican and Central American department of the US Drug Enforcement Administration, said that the Mexican drug gangs were the most dangerous in the drug business. He reckoned that the value of the trade in illegal drugs handled by Mexican gangs was US$65bn a year. Holyfield, speaking at the International Drug Enforcement Conference in Panama on 25 May, said that the Mexican gangs are the best organised, the most vicious and the strongest in the world. He said that they were stronger than the Colombian gangs and that they were so confident of their position they told the police and other enforcement agencies that they could choose whether to take their pay-offs in money or lead. Holyfield, however, praised the role the Mexican government has played in clamping down on the drug trade. 

    Holyfield pussy-footed around the issue of whether the DEA issues instructions to the Mexican drug-enforcement agencies. He noted that DEA research had found that there was an increase in amphetamines being produced in Mexico: Holyfield said that the Mexican authorities were responsible for investigating this. He also noted that more heroin from Colombia seemed to be coming through Central America to the US and Europe.

    • The US-based Asociación Nacional de Funcionarios Latinos Electos y Designados claims that more Hispanic voters will vote in this November's elections in the US and that they are likely to have a decisive role in several states. The Asociación reckons that 6.9m Hispanics will vote in the 2004 election. This is around 1m more than voted in the 2000 election. If this many vote, they will account for just over 6% of the votes cast. The Hispanic vote is likely to be important in Florida and New Mexico. There are 838,000 Hispanic voters in Florida. There is a growing dispute in Florida over state officials' slowness on overhauling voter rolls: in 2000 these were widely agreed to be defective and deprived large numbers of likely-Democratic Party supporters of the right to vote. Over half of Florida's 67 countries still have to overhaul their voter lists. President George W Bush won Florida, and its 27 electoral college votes, by just 537 votes. Altogether there are 40m Hispanics in the US.
    • The governor of Oklahoma, Brad Henry, commuted the death sentence on Osvaldo Torres on 13 May. He was scheduled to be executed on 18 May. This is the first time that the governor has commuted a death sentence. Mexican politicians and human-rights activists, from President Vicente Fox down, had lobbied hard for the death sentence to be commuted. Henry ruled that Torres will now face a life behind bars with no prospect of parole.