Key assumptions
The following key assumptions form the background to our analysis of Northeast Asia's and Southeast Asia's position in global geostrategy.
1. The overriding strategic concern for all countries in Northeast and Southeast Asia is China's rise and how to react to it.
2. The response of the region to China's rise covers the whole spectrum from Burma's willing subservience to Japan's ever deepening alliance with the United States. South Korea straddles the middle ground, trying to remain equidistant between the US and China.
3. The enmity between Japan and China precludes meaningful cooperation in East Asia, but it continues to spur integration in Southeast Asia.
4. China, Japan, the US, and India are all competing for influence in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is responding by trying to forge itself into a union capable of withstanding pressure from its larger neighbours.
5. Anti-Chinese sentiment is a cultural staple across much of Southeast Asia, disadvantaging China in the contest for Asian supremacy. But neither is Japan nor India overwhelmingly popular.
6. Islam is another important influence in Southeast Asia, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is very active in the region.
7. The fault lines between Islam and other civilizations in Southeast Asia - in Thailand, Indonesia, and the Philippines - provide a magnet for jihadists from both inside and outside the region, thus dragging Southeast Asia into the wider conflict between radical Islam and the West.
8. Northeast and Southeast Asia are host to a number of serious potential flashpoints including conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea, North Korea, and (above all) Taiwan.
Our evolving analysis can be tracked by viewing the Courcy's Intelligence Analysis link in this report.