Key assumptions
The following key assumptions outline our views of Islam's future role in Asia and in particular its ability to act as a unifying force.
1. As long as Sunni Islam (Asia's most popular faith) lacks a centralising power to enforce ecclesiastical uniformity radicals will continue to use the religion as a vehicle for recruiting and indoctrinating political fighters, in Asia as elsewhere.
2. There is movement towards such a centralising power on three fronts:
- Muslim countries have increased formal cooperation.
- The rapid growth of shariah-compliant financial services provides an economic motive for doctrinal standardization.
- A semi-clandestine international movement is pressing for the restoration of a unified "caliphate" stretching from Bali to the Bosphorus.
3. The US has identified Malaysia, the main innovator in halal finance, as the model of an enlightened Muslim state and will continue to promote its claims to international religious leadership so long as it retains a moderate government.
4. Muslim governments will use the threat of extremism to extract extra security assistance from the US.
5. Pakistan continues deliberately to overstate the threat of Islamist groups to its stability. The exaggeration is intended to justify the continued centrality of the army in the national debate.
6. Islamic militants are not capable of overthrowing the government of any South or East Asian country.
7. The threat of Muslim terrorism in Asia is conditional on conflict elsewhere in the Islamic world. In the medium- to long-term the threat of such terrorism will recede.
These are the essential assumptions on which CourcyInt analysis of this issue is based. Developments that might affect any or all of these assumptions are constantly monitored, and the assumptions themselves are under constant review.
Our evolving analysis can be tracked by viewing the Courcy's Intelligence Analysis link in this report.