Unhappy
The Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) is gearing up for the 2006 elections with a sense of foreboding. The party has done abysmally in recent elections: its only gain in 2004, in Tlaxcala, was the result of a major split in Partido de la Revolución Democrática. Even its good performance in Sinaloa in 2004 was not down to the party but to the popularity of the PAN's candidate, Heriberto Félix Guerra. He was a dissident Priísta, who had served in the outgoing PRI administration (as secretary of economic development), headed by Juan Millán.
The PAN is unlikely to do well in the next gubernatorial election in Hidalgo and is showing signs of splitting badly in Nayarit, which is technically a PAN state, and in the crucial Estado de México.
The party's infighting in this state prompted the investigations' committee of the state electoral commission to rule that all three PAN candidates for the party's nomination had broken the electoral law by overspending on their primary campaigns. The party may well fail to field a candidate: this could mean that with the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional split, the PRD could score another eye-catching win.
The PAN has been in decline, in electoral terms, ever since President Vicente Fox won the 2000 presidential election. In the mid-term congressional elections in 2003, the PAN was the big loser, slumping from the 209 seats it won in 2000 to 150.
The only high-profile gubernatorial win since Fox took office has been in Yucatán. And the party has lost bastions such as Nuevo León and seen its position weaken in key states such as Baja California Norte and Chihuahua.
The PAN is currently going through the process of picking its party president. The frontrunner is a senator, Carlos Medina Plascencia. He comes from President Fox's state, Guanajuato, which along with Jalisco, is still safely in PAN hands.
Medina Plascencia is supported by three of the PAN's four candidates for the presidential nomination: Francisco Barrio, the party leader in the lower chamber of congress; Felipe Calderón, a former party president and energy minister in Fox's administration; and Alberto Cárdenas, a former governor of Jalisco.
The only presidential candidate who does not support Meidan Plascencia is the favourite for the 2006 presidential nomination, the interior minister, Santiago Creel. Creel is accused by his rivals of being favoured by President Vicente Fox.