René Garcia Préval
Who is René Garcia Préval?
He is the favourite to win the presidential elections in Haiti, postponed four times but most recently scheduled for 7 February.
Why watch him?
He is the most likely to emerge from a throng of some 35 candidates to win the elections. He has the blessing of former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide, still the most popular politician in Haiti despite being exiled in South Africa since he was driven from power in an armed revolt in February 2004.
Born: 17 January 1943; one of four children.
Place of Birth: Port-au-Prince.
Educated: He received a degree in agronomy from the College of Jembloux in Belgium. He has a background in both geothermics and engineering.
Public Life: He married Guerda (Geri) Benoí®t in 1997. He has two teenage daughters.
Timeline:
1963: His family is driven into exile by President François "Papa Doc" Duvalier.
1970-1975: Spends five years in Brooklyn, New York, US.
1975-1977: Returns to Haiti. Works at the national institute for mineral resources (Inarem).
1986: Participates in a number of grassroots social organisations after the fall of Jean-Claude "Baby Doc" Duvalier, including Lafanmi Selavi, the orphanage and educational facility set up by then Roman Catholic priest Father Jean-Bertrand Aristide, the Fred Coriolan Committee, and the Komite Pa Bliye (Always Remember Committee), which endeavoured to find justice for the many victims of the Duvalier dictatorship.
1988-1990: Plays a key role in the Initiative Group of Civil Society for the Respect of the Constitution known as Honneur - Réspect, which made it possible for the first ever democratic elections to be held in Haiti in December 1990.
1991: Appointed minister of interior and defence and prime minister under President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in February 1991 until the military coup of 29 September. Given refuge at the French and Mexican embassies in Port-au-Prince.
1992-1994: Goes into exile in the US. Keeps his position in Aristide's exiled cabinet in Washington, D.C.
1995: Director of Economic and Social Assistance Fund (FAES).
February 1996-2001: Elected president, becoming the second democratically elected head of state in Haiti's history.
2005: Announces candidacy for election.
Strengths
Préval is the only candidate likely to galvanise the support of the Haitian hinterland, where exiled former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide retains considerable backing. He is often referred to as Aristide's "twin," and, like his mentor, has sought to increase his support through appealing to the politically underrepresented. He is admired for his past involvement with groups such as the Komite Pa Bliye (see above). He is also experienced; one of only two democratically elected presidents in Haiti's turbulent history and he was the first to serve a full term. In the most recent (December) CID/Gallup poll, Préval had 32% backing; his nearest challenger was Haitian-born US businessman Dumarsais Siméus with 21% support.
Weaknesses
Aristide's former coalition, Fanmi Lavalas, is the most popular political outfit in Haiti but it is not presenting a united front in the elections. The party leadership has thrown its weight behind Marc Bazin, a political opportunist and an unusual choice given that he served as finance minister under Jean-Claude Duvalier. When Préval came to power in 1996, he won 88% of the vote but, crucially, less than 25% of Haiti's 3.7 million voters turned out for the contest. Although the provisional electoral council has done its best to get registration cards out to voters and provide polling stations in accessible areas, a similar turnout would damage Préval's credibility. It would also leave him open to attack from forces which have kept pretty quiet since Aristide was brought down: Guy Philippe, the leader of the revolt against Aristide, and other shadowy figures like Himler Rebu, who want to see the restoration of the army which was disbanded in 1994.
Prospects
If he wins, Préval will have much more support than interim prime minister Gérard Latortue, who is seen as a US puppet installed without a popular mandate. Whoever wins the elections will need a good turnout to legitimise his rule. He will face the unenviable task of addressing widespread poverty, a devastated economy, extensive deforestation that has left Haiti prone to natural disasters, and widespread lawlessness. The goodwill and forbearance of the Haitian people is celebrated but the new president will struggle to appeal to them beyond the powerful and corrupt political and business elite. Only by providing better health care, education and security can the future head of state hope to challenge Haiti's armed gangs. This, however, will require a long-term vision, beyond the end of his mandate, and a consistent level of foreign aid from the international community. Although the UN spoke of a 20-year vision for Haiti after the fall of Aristide, keeping Haiti at the top of the agenda when other global events unfold will be very difficult.