Risk Tracking
Africa: NigeriaThe risk of other resource-rich regions in African countries following South Sudan's example and seceeding is increasing. Recent violence surrounding Nigeria's elections has highlighted the tensions between the nothern regions, which practice Sharia law and are closely and are stongly influenced the Arabic Middle-East, and the the southern regions where the legislature is based. Although the government is officially secular, its powerbase is the south's largely pro-West, Christian population.
Africa: LibyaThe divide between the rebel heartland in the east and the governent controlled west follows almost exactly the original border between Cyrenaica and Tripolitania. If Libya were to split Cyrenaica would end up with most of the oil.
Europe: ElectionsThere has been a steady increase in the power of the far-right across Europe in recent years. This year there are legislative elections in Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Macedonia, The Netherlands (Senate), Poland and Turkey. These will be suggestive of future trends toward nationalism and the extreme right. The Netherlands in particular will be instructive. The popularity of the various far-right factions has been dismissed by some as protest-voting; the Senate elections this year could prove or disprove that assertion.