The numbers battle: López Obrador, homicides and the role of the press
When Andrés Manuel López Obrador took office as Mexico’s president on 1 December 2018, he promised a reduction in homicides and overall improvements in the security situation in the country in the first 100 days of his presidency. On one of his morning briefings to the press, López Obrador explained that the number of daily homicides had already decreased from an average of 80 while Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018) was in office to approximately 64 or 66 in the first days of January 2019. These numbers and the claim that homicides started decreasing as soon as the new president took office are widely contested by the political opposition and the media. The president’s response to the press’s criticism has raised concern among organisation defending the freedom of the press.
Currently, the number homicides per month in Mexico is estimated at an average of 2,000 since 2006. Last year is reported to have been the deadliest since 1997 when records started being kept. There were 33,341 homicides in 2018 on official figures (2,778 per month), a 15% increase compared with 2017.
In December 2018, during a congressional session 10 days after López Obrador took office, members of the right-wing opposition Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) party, stood up with signs that claimed that in those first ten days there had been 363 homicides in Mexico, compared with 208 during the first ten days of the Felipe Calderón administration (2006-2012), and 232 during Peña Nieto’s. The PAN legislators went on to say that they will show these figures on a weekly basis to demonstrate that the national security strategy proposed by López Obrador will not yield results.
Opposition parties are not the only ones to question the president’s claims about a reduction in homicides. Much of the recent debate and the number dispute has centred on a figure published by local daily Reforma. The daily claimed that during the month of December 2018, 887 homicides linked to organised crime took place, compared with 537 during Peña Nieto’s last month in office, a 65% increase.
López Obrador responded by saying that if the increase had been so alarming, other media sources would have reported it and the public would have noticed the increase in violence. The president went on to say that Reforma is a conservative publication that is targeting him with lies and he will respond whenever necessary.
Much of the debate centres on the definitions used. Reforma’s indicator refers to violent deaths or homicides linked to organised crime. The government refutes this indicator, claiming that no such measure exists. The government instead talks about the number of homicides, meaning deaths caused intentionally, and questions Reforma’s indicator that makes a link to organised crime. Moreover, the government accuses Reforma of not explaining its methodology or revealing its sources.
Reforma has claimed that its indicator of violent deaths or homicides linked to organised crimes comes from a journalistic review of federal and state government data as well as from the security forces. The daily claims that in the absence of transparency from the government, their indicator has become a reliable source for think-tanks and other organisations.
On 6 January 2019, the British human rights organisation, Article 19, sent a letter to López Obrador reminding him of his obligation not to stigmatise the media and of the need to have an open debate. The letter explained that the president is entitled to respond to media reports but that calling Reforma an ally of the elite-mafia and a sensationalist media source restricted the ability of the press to do its job. More broadly, Article 19 pointed out that since July 2018 when he was elected, López Obrador often referred to some media sources as “prensa-fifí”, meaning elitist. The organisation considers these attacks an affront on the plurality of voices and opinions that must exist in a liberal democracy.
Article 19 was founded in 1987 and focuses on the defence and promotion of freedom of expression and freedom of information worldwide. The organisation takes its name from article 19 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, which states that “Everyone has the right to freedom of opinion and expression; the right includes freedom to hold opinions without interference and to seek, receive and impart information and ideas through any media regardless of frontiers.”
Mexico is one of the world’s most violent countries for journalists. In 2018, nine journalists were murdered, while 47 have been killed from 2012 to 2018, all deliberately targeted for being journalists according to human rights organisations. According to Reporters Without Borders, Mexico is the deadliest country for journalists after Syria – a country currently at war.
Beyond the debate on the number of homicides, critics have argued that López Obrador has a responsibility to ensure a safe environment for journalists to do their work and that he should refrain from attacks that stigmatise the role of journalists.
Reforms to combat violence in the country
During the electoral campaign, López Obrador promised that he would meet with his cabinet to discuss security matters every day of the week at 7:00am, thus showing his commitment to improving the situation in the country. During his morning briefings, the president explained, that the federal police (PF), the army and the navy will brief him on the events of the preceding 24 hours. López Obrador said that he was confident he could improve the security situation in the country because “we are doing what was not done before, dealing with the problem on a daily basis in a coordinated manner”. His security cabinet meeting is followed by a question and answer period with the press, so debates about the numbers of homicides and the effectiveness of his national security strategy are likely to continue.
One of López Obrador’s key proposed initiatives to lower the number of homicides is the creation of an integrated command structure that would regroup the army, the navy, and the PF forces under a civil command. The proposal has generated concerns by human rights organisations that fear the creeping militarisation of public security in the country. López Obrador expects to hire 20,000 new members in the different branches of the police to patrol areas of the country where homicides are concentrated.
Despite the recent tense exchanges with the press and some of his security measures being criticised, López Obrador has said on various occasions that he will keep offering government protection to journalists under threat, despite the fact that he has refused to have bodyguards for himself, explaining that “the people will protect him”.