Fear of radical provocation tempers Mexican 'resistance' campaign
Mexican presidential aspirant Andrés Manuel López Obrador has drawn back his 'civic resistance' campaign from situations in which he ran the risk of a direct clashes with the army or the federal police. One of the reasons was the visible waning of public support for his campaign. Another was the fear that deliberate attempts might be made to provoke such confrontations, with the purpose of drawing the federal forces into acts of repression which, in turn, would radicalise the 'resistance'.
Such provocations, say sources close to López Obrador, could come from two quarters. One is the 'hard' faction within López Obrador's Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), who favour proclaiming López the 'legitimate' president and preventing the official president-elect, Felipe Calderón, from taking office. The other is the remnants of Mexico's far-left guerrilla groups, three of which have already signalled their determination to 'respond to repression' with armed action.
On 30 August the dormant Ejército Popular Revolucionario (EPR) guerrilla group celebrated its tenth anniversary by warning that it will return to armed action if the government represses the pro-López Obrador protest actions. In a statement to the press, leaders of this group said, 'If the federal government decides on repression, it will cancel the possibility that the people might carry out social transformations peacefully, and will clear the way for blunt action by our commandos and military units in the state of Oaxaca and other jurisdictions.'
On 7 September the media received a communiqué from the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo Insurgente (ERPI), active — albeit mainly in small-scale political initiatives — in the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. Addressing the members of the military, it said, 'Do not repress or murder the people from which you come, because surely, sooner or later, you will be ordered to do so.' The communiqué also urges the soldiers not to fire upon any ERPI units they may come across: 'Our combatants will not do so if you don't.'
That same day another group active in Guerrero, the Comando Magonista de Liberación (CML), issued a communiqué addressing 'the possible intervention of repressive federal agencies' against López Obrador's followers. The CML said that 'with the ruling of the federal electoral court in favour of the rightwing candidate' its military leaders had ended 'the truce declared in January this year, which we prolonged until the exhaustion of the electoral contest.' It added, 'We will act militarily in response to repressive action.'
Of these organisations, the most significant is the EPR, formed in 1994 by the convergence of several groups, under leaders coming from the Partido Revolucionario Obrero Clandestino-Unión del Pueblo (PROCUP). Its political wing, the still-extant Partido Democrático Popular Revolucionario (PDPR), first appeared in 1996. It was initially active in three southern states: Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas, but the datelines of subsequent communiqués suggested expansion into Jalisco, Michoacán and Veracruz..
In 1998-99 it was riven by splits, with a core of 'conservatives' hewing to the old PROCUP line of building up towards a 'prolonged people's war', and factions described as 'rupturist' who advocated a more insurrectionist approach. In 2001 the rump EPR restated its commitment to the 'prolonged people's war'. It has remained active to the present day, but mainly through communiqués adopting positions towards elections at local, state and federal level.
The Fox administration has claimed that the EPR has set up a number of 'front' organisations not ostensibly in favour of armed action, and infiltrated others. Among the former are the Frente Popular Revolucionario, Frente Popular Francisco Villa, Comité por la Liberación de los Hermanos Cerezo Contreras and Movimiento de Lucha Popular. Among the latter, the umbrella labour federation Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT), the Comité General de Huelga de la Universidad Autónoma de México, Unión Popular 28 de Octubre and Unión Popular de la Juventud Revolucionaria. All the latter and many of the former have denied any connection with the EPR.
The ERPI broke away from the EPR in 1998, adopting an insurrectionist line based on building up a grassroots following in rural communities and among social organisations. In its early phases it carried out some armed actions in the state of Guerrero and Morelos. Many of its members, including some top leaders, have been arrested, tried and sentenced to long terms in prison. Since late 2002 the ERPI has been seeking alliances with other armed groups. It was last heard from in July this year, via a communiqué on the elections.
The CML, the least-known of the three, is connected with the Tendencia Democrática Revolucionaria-Ejército del Pueblo (TDR-EP), another splinter of the EPR, which took its present form in 2004. This organisation has been active distributing propaganda in support of the teachers, and their allied civic movement, which have been campaigning since May for the resignation of the governor of Oaxaca.