Brazil considers rewriting strategy to deal with Bolivia
Since early May, when the Bolivian government decreed the 'nationalisation' of the hydrocarbons sector and the attitudes of several high-ranking Bolivian officials towards Brazil started sounding a decidedly hostile note, speculation began to circulate about preparations for a Brazilian military response. By late May, to the undisguised glee of the Venezuelan opposition media, reports began to appear in the Brazilian press about a thorough review of defence plans, in which Bolivia appears as a hot spot and Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is seen as a 'destabilising element'. While there is a kernel of truth in this, the broader picture appears to have been blown out of proportion.
The main source for much of the speculation has come from a report published in the newspaper Correio Braziliense on 14 May, which claims that 'intelligence analyses of probable risks concur that peace in South America is uncertain and suggest an urgent strategic review of the national defence policy approved in 2005.'
Two-step on sensitive exercises
It is well worth noting that the first public reaction in the defence area to the Bolivian nationalisation was the last-minute cancellation by Brazilian defence minister Waldir Pires of the annual Operação Jauru, a combined exercise of the three armed services in support of the federal and state police, simulating actions against smugglers and drug traffickers, and conducted along the border with Paraguay and the non-Amazonian stretch of the border with Bolivia. The reason: the exercises could have given rise to 'eventual erroneous interpretations' at a time when Brazil was involved in acrimonious discussions with Bolivia.
Brazil has not, however, suspended the annual Operação Timbó, joint service exercises that take place, usually in July, along 1,300 kilometres of western and south-western Amazonian border. This year they are designed to focus specifically on the borders of Rondônia and Acre states with Bolivia. According to briefings by the general defence staff in March, this year Operação Timbó will involve simulating the confrontation of conventional forces in a jungle context. The Venezuelan newspaper El Mundo said on 19 May that this reflected Brazilian military concern that Evo Morales might seek to reverse the incorporation of once-Bolivian Acre into Brazil in 1903. This claim can be traced back to an early-May tongue-in-cheek comment in a Brazilian blog: 'We hope that Evo Morales does not decide to invade Brazil, alleging that he was cheated on the Petrópolis Treaty, signed in 1903, in which Bolivia sold Brazil the territory of the state of Acre.' Still, the Brazilian government appears no longer so concerned about bruising Bolivian sensibilities with its military exercises.