A long way up, it's getting congested
With over 50 countries involved in the space environment, it is becoming crowded. This is particularly true of the Lower Earth Orbit (LEO), where many communication satellites, government and private, are to be found. The problem has been compounded in recent years by the proliferation of space debris. Space debris is any piece of material that has been discarded, intentionally or not, that has remained in orbit, rather than returning to earth.
For more than 30 years NASA has been predicting that the debris floating in space could form a layer so dense that it would be all but impossible to pass through, leaving us trapped on our own planet. Currently there are more than 20,000 traceable pieces of debris larger than 10 centimetres in diameter, and another 300,000 larger than one centimetre in diameter. It is also estimated that the number of untraceable pieces could number in the millions. Space debris comprises remnants of old satellites, discarded parts of shuttles and various other pieces that have been abandoned in space but have not been pulled into the earth’s atmosphere. It is projected that the amount of space debris could triple by 2030 and would continue to increase even if no more satellites were sent up.
A model known as the Kessler Syndrome has been used to predict that eventually there will be enough space debris that it will become self-promulgating, causing a never ending spiral of debris as it collides with itself and is slowly reduced into smaller and smaller pieces. Fears have been expressed that this may already be occurring, and if the amount of debris continues to increase unchecked it could be an irreversible trend. Tracking the debris is a daunting task, and the statistics are complicated. The quantity is not merely physically increasing, but also tracking technology is constantly improving and augmenting the amount of known debris.
In recent years two particular events have dramatically increased the amount of space debris: China’s destruction of their own FY-1C satellite in 2007 created over 2,000 new pieces of debris, drawing widespread criticism from the international space faring community; the 2009 collision of Iridium 33, an American communication satellite, and Kosmos-2251, a defunct Russian satellite, the first hypervelocity space clash, resulted in roughly 2,000 new pieces of debris. These pieces have had a serious impact within the LEO, the International Space Station (ISS) has been forced into a number of emergency manoeuvres to avoid pieces identified as having come from these incidents. On 12 March this year the astronauts were forced to evacuate to the ‘lifeboat’ space ship for several hours as a piece of FY-1C passed dangerously close.
One of the reasons space debris has been allowed to flourish unchecked is that there has been little legislation concerned with it. The original Outer Space Treaty lacked the foresight to provide for the problem and there is now little political will to create an international accord that would. A committee has been formed by the leading space faring nations, the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), to look into the problem, and the topic is regularly discussed at conferences but there remain a number of significant barriers to the process. No one nation wishes to use its time and resources to undertake actions that would benefit all space faring nations without sharing the cost, and an agreement has yet to be reached. Even if there was sufficient political will, there is no consensus on how to solve the problem. Ideas have been proposed that range from building a giant fishing net to equipping a spaceship with a robotic arm to collect the debris, but all seem unfeasible without massive investment and would require international approval. International agreement has been reached with regard to space debris mitigation, with many countries issuing guidelines to minimise the dumping of junk in space, but removal tactics remain unresolved.
Space debris represents an ever increasing problem to both nations with space programs and to commercial companies that rely on satellite technology, such as telecoms companies. The modern world is highly dependent on satellite communications systems, losing them would be a costly experience for both the companies involved, and their users. Due to the limitations of current launch technology it is impractical to heavily shield satellites and space ships, due to the cost of launching the increased mass ($9,000 per kilo). Any objects of one centimetre diameter or more in the planned satellite position are considered to pose an operation-ending risk.
Between 2010 and 2013 some 35 satellites will be launched into space, with roughly 25 being insured. Space insurance is, therefore, already a big business, with companies offering insurance against launch failure, failure to stabilise orbit and communication problems throughout the satellite's lifespan. Currently most satellites have an ‘all risk’ strategy that should provide cover, but it remains largely untested and could prove incomplete in the future. Companies are now faced with the very real possibility of colliding with other satellites. This is largely an untested area since no serious collisions between commercial satellites have occurred, and it therefore remains an unknown legal area as far as test cases are concerned. According to the Liability Convention of 1972, the launching State is considered legally responsible for that object during the launch, on-orbit, and re-entry phases and may have absolute liability or fault-based liability for damages caused by the object. Considering the problems already encountered in tracking space debris, it could be hard to prove liability for small pieces. It is believed that it will also be hard to prove, in the event of two colliding satellites, which one is liable for causing the crash, or whether it would simply be classed as accidental. If the amount of debris does continue to increase as predicted, the cost of insuring space flights could increase in line with the risks, with that cost being passed on to consumers. It is believed, for example, that neither the Iridium 33 satellite nor its Russian counterpart was insured against collision. Russia merely argued that it was not under legal requirement to remove its defunct satellite from orbit, and Iridium’s operators may not even have realised that the collision was possible.
Space and satellite technology is a market that has ridden out the recent economic difficulties, actually bucking worldwide trends, and space insurance has grown as a result. Space debris has, therefore, become a topic of major consideration for governments, commercial companies, and their insurers. The potential for a collision is ever increasing and could prove to be very expensive for a badly affected company, losing both capability and customers, whilst having the possibility to render governments blind, ineffective and unaware, impacting on commercial, civilian and military activities worldwide.