Hispanics stay Democratic
The latest opinion polls show that Hispanic voters in the US, who could be decisive in several key states, are breaking 60:40 in favour of the Democratic challenger, John Kerry. In 2000, they split 62%:38% for Al Gore in the race with President George W Bush.
In the current election, both campaigns are spending heavily on trying to reach Hispanic voters in 18 key swing states. The opinion polls point to President Bush not winning in three states he took last time: Arizona, Nevada and Florida. These are all states where there is a significant Hispanic minority. In Florida it appears that Kerry is still significantly ahead of Bush: Florida has 27 votes in the electoral college. Arizona has 10 and Nevada five.
Even after the Republican Party convention in New York, several opinion polls in the crucial 18 states where the election will be won or lost put Kerry significantly ahead of Bush. As Kerry has California's 55 electoral college votes and Bush has Texas's 34, states such as New York (31 votes); Ohio (20); Illinois (21); Florida (27), Pennsylvania (21) and Michigan (17) are all crucial. California is the best example of Hispanic voting muscle: the state was solidly Republican in presidential elections, from 1968 to 1988. In 1999, minorities, led by Hispanics, outnumber White Anglo Saxons for the first time. The Hispanics had been galvanised by the ill-considered decision by Pete Wilson to attempt to prevent undocumented migrants being eligible for public services. Hispanics account for a third of the state's 34m residents. The state has not voted Republican in the past four presidential elections.
The Democrats' drive to get the Hispanic vote out for Kerry is being led by a so-called '527' political group, America Votes. The '527' groups are not affiliated to party campaigns and are not limited to federal laws limiting political committee donations to US$5,000 per person. America Votes has raised US$98m. Of this US$33.8m has come from three men: George Soros, the hedge fund manager and philanthropist; Steve Bing, a film producer and Peter Lewis, who runs Mayfield, the US's third largest car insurer.
The big question is whether the Hispanic votes will turn out this year. In 2000, their turnout was 46%, well below the 57% national turnout. Some activists claim that this year the Hispanic turnout will jump to 80%. Interestingly, the most Hispanic state in the US, New Mexico, which has a Chicano governor, Bill Richardson, a prominent Democrat, has tilted away from the Democrats towards Bush. In 2000, Al Gore won New Mexico (and its five electoral college votes) by 336 votes out of 600,000 cast. The latest opinion polls show that Bush is leading by 45% to 42%, with 8% of the electorate undecided or unwilling to say. Around 42% of New Mexico's population is Hispanic.
The biggest effect of the Democrats' drive for Hispanic votes is probably being felt in Florida. The opinion polls consistently show Bush trailing in the state, even though his brother, Jeb, is the governor. In 2000, Bush famously won the state (and the presidency) by 537 votes out of 6m. In that election 678,000 of the 1.2m eligible Hispanic voters actually voted.
Opinion polls show that Bush's new regulations to restrict family visits to Cuba are unpopular with the vociferous Cuban-American minority in southern Florida. In 2000, this group split 82%:18% in favour of Bush. They are now tilting towards Kerry. One problem for Kerry is that a Cuban American Republican, Mel Martinez, is running for a vacant senate seat against an Anglo-American Democrat, Betty Castor.