Date: 22 October 2023
Type: General election: presidential, legislative
Main contenders: Frente de Todos (FdT) coalition, which is led by the ruling Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists). The main opposition coalition is Juntos por el Cambio (JxC), which includes parties such as Propuesta Republicana (Pro), Unión Cívica Radical (UCR), and Coalición Cívica-Afirmación para una República Igualitaria (CC-ARI)
A growing lack of trust
For 40 years since the restoration of democracy in 1983, Argentine elections have been orderly, continuous, and relatively predictable, with the winners alternating between coalitions of the centre-left and the centre-right. But 2023 might change at least some of that, given an intense economic crisis, and signs that voters are turning away from the traditional political establishment.
Two recent incidents suggest that Argentine voters are in an angry mood. On 6 March television news channel Todo Noticias covered the funeral of a 12-year-old boy who had been caught in the crossfire in gun battles between rival drug gangs in Rosario, the country’s third largest city. The channel rolled with live pictures as local residents ransacked and looted the home of one of his alleged killers. In a separate incident on 3 April the security minister for Buenos Aires province tried to talk to striking bus drivers in La Matanza, who had called a strike after one of their fellow-workers had been shot dead by armed robbers. Rather than talk, the strikers punched and kicked the minister who, bloody and bruised, had to be rescued by police. Of course, two incidents alone don’t make any kind of a trend. Argentina has a solid reputation for managing peaceful elections. But opinion polls show there is a growing lack of trust in the ability of the political establishment to come up with solutions to problems such as inflation, unemployment, corruption, and crime.
This year’s general elections will play out over three key dates. On 13 August the country will hold primary elections in 24 key constituencies (23 provinces plus the city of Buenos Aires). They are known by the acronym PASO which stands for open, simultaneous, and obligatory primaries (primarias abiertas, simultáneas y obligatorias). However, despite the name, some provinces still hold their own primaries on different dates.
The second key date comes on 22 October when citizens cast their vote in presidential and legislative elections. At stake are the choice of president and vice-president, 130 of the 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and 24 of the 72 seats in the Senate. Deputies are elected to four-year terms while senators serve for six years; legislative elections are staggered and held every two years. To win the presidency in the first-round ballot a candidate needs to gather at least 45% of the votes cast, or 40% while at the same time achieving a 10-percentage point lead over his or her closest opponent. If those metrics are not reached, a run-off second ballot will be held to decide between the two most-voted candidates on 19 November. The newly elected government will then take office on 10 December this year.
Deeply unhappy voters highlight inflation and crime
Opinion polls show voters are deeply unhappy over the state of the country. Despite the efforts of the current centre-left ruling coalition, the Frente de Todos (FdT), inflation has been rising sharply, breaking into three digits for the first time in February (when the 12-month inflation rate reached 102.5%, way above the IMF-set target of 60%). The country experienced hyperinflation in the 1980s and 1990s, but for most current voters it is an entirely new experience. A severe drought may also push the economy into recession this electoral year. Low foreign currency reserves mean a new foreign exchange crisis could add to the cocktail of problems playing out before the polls.
A survey by Universidad de San Andrés published in early April asked voters about their views on government policy. A massive 92% said they were “totally dissatisfied” with economic policy, against 6% who said they were “totally satisfied”. Other areas with large dissatisfaction rates included security (89% dissatisfied), social policy (79% dissatisfied), and education (78% dissatisfied).
An interesting point from the San Andrés survey is that supporters of the country’s two main coalitions seem to be somewhat in agreement over the country’s ills. Supporters of both the ruling FdT and the centre-right opposition Juntos por el Cambio (JxC, also known as Juntos) say inflation is the country’s number one problem. It is identified as such by 59% of FdT voters and by 67% of JxC voters. They also agree that “delinquency, robbery, and insecurity” is the number three problem (31% of FdT voters and 44% of JxC supporters). They disagree, however, over the Number 2 problem. Thirty-one percent of FdT supporters say it is poverty, while 50% of JxC voters say it is corruption. Both also worry over the state of the judiciary, politicians, drug trafficking, and foreign debt, among a range of other problems.
The battle of three thirds
To be electorally successful, any Argentine politician must do two things. First, he or she must be in the winning coalition. Second, he or she must find a way of being in the top faction within the top coalition, in other words winning what is called la interna. This year, making those calculations is particularly complex because the country seems to be transitioning away from a battle between two dominant coalitions to a new and potentially three-way contest.
In very broad terms, for the last 80 years Argentina has been split between centre-left populism on the one hand, characterised by Peronism (the Partido Justicialista founded in the 1940s by Juan Domingo Perón) and a range of centre right forces such as the Unión Cívica Radical (UCR) on the other. The ideological division between these forces runs deep and is known as la grieta – the rift or fault-line. Of course, other actors (not least the armed forces) have played a part, but for the last 40 years the grieta has been a central feature of every election. If these were normal times, we might expect, given the current government’s poor performance and low popularity, that the elections would see a strong swing to the centre-right, favouring JxC.
But these are not necessarily normal times and a challenge to the two dominant coalitions has emerged – the libertarian far right, the party known as La Libertad Avanza (LLA) led by economist Javier Milei. Milei, who admires Donald Trump in the US and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, presents himself as an anti-establishment candidate who will close the central bank, slash government spending, privatise state-owned companies, and follow a deeply conservative social agenda including banning abortion. The candidate’s brash style is proving attractive to young voters and to those who want to punish the political establishment.
If opinion polls are to be believed, over the last six months LLA has consolidated enough electoral appeal to at least begin to challenge the ‘establishment duopoly’ formed by FdT and JxC. Between the beginning of March and 4 April a total of 20 opinion polls were published. On average these gave JxC 30% support, with the ruling FdT on 26% and LLA on 19.3%. Looking back over time, the gap between JxC and FdT has been narrowing. While LLA is in third place it has been growing steadily and is positioned to play a key role, particularly if there is a second-round run-off in November. It is also important to note that, with the primaries due in four months’ time, and the first-round ballot coming up two months after that, the race at this stage is still wide open.
Parties manoeuvre around the primaries
Much will therefore depend on what happens in the August primaries. It is worth noting that in recent Argentine experience the primaries have performed at least two distinct functions. One is to settle the internal matter of who will run for which elected posts. The other is as a kind of early litmus test of voting strength which can be used to create a ‘bandwagon effect’ attracting floating voters.
Within the ruling FdT the primaries are looking problematic. In an ideal world the coalition would have already reached an internal agreement on who to nominate as president and vice-president, as well as on its nominees for congress. This would then form a single list to be voted on at the PASO primaries which would send out a positive message of unity to its supporters and maximise the time available for campaigning. By early April however it had become clear that such an agreement was unlikely to materialise, thanks to the long-standing internal battle between President Alberto Fernández and Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner.
The president had still not ruled out standing for re-election, a decision bitterly opposed by much of the coalition because of his high levels of unpopularity. The vice-president has also been somewhat unclear over her intentions. Facing a court-ordered prison sentence for corruption she was thought to favour running for the senate (which would preserve her immunity from prosecution) while endorsing one of her allies such as interior minister Eduardo ‘Wado’ de Pedro. Other potential candidates include economy minister Sergio Massa (somewhat overshadowed by the ongoing surge in inflation) and the current ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Scioli. The problem facing the party is that although Fernández de Kirchner is popular with her base (17.9% would vote for her as president according to an early April GOP/Trespuntozero poll) she also has very high rejection rates.
In JxC, on the other hand, the recent decision by former president Mauricio Macri (2015-2019) to drop out of the 2023 race has helped thin out the field. According to opinion polls the front runners in this race are now the mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and former security minister Patricia Bullrich (2015-2019), both members of the Propuesta Republicana (PRO) party. Other contenders for the JxC nomination include María Eugenia Vidal, the former governor of Buenos Aires province (2015-2019), and Martin Lousteau, an economist and UCR senator. Rodríguez Larreta and Bullrich are making clearly differentiated political pitches. Rodríguez Larreta wants to build bridges across the political centre-ground, appealing to moderate Peronist voters to build a consensual approach to economic and security policies. Bullrich in contrast has positioned herself as a hawk, promising a radical crackdown on crime and drug trafficking. In short, she hopes to attract floating voters that are currently aligning themselves with the far-right Javier Milei camp.
Notably the Universidad de San Andrés survey places Bullrich in pole position as currently the most popular presidential contender with 40% of respondents giving her a positive image rating as either “good” or “very good”. Further down the list come Vidal and Rodríguez Larreta, (both with 37%). Milei comes fourth with a 34% positive rating. The best placed FdT figure in this poll is Fernández de Kirchner who comes 11th with a 22% positive rating; President Alberto Fernández trails in 19th place with a 13% positive rating.
The outcome remains uncertain. It is worth remembering that opinion polls have been mistaken in the past. At this stage however the FdT ruling coalition looks the most likely lose (punished over inflation and crime); the far right looks set to capture more of the protest vote than ever before; and some version of the centre-right looks likeliest to be forming Argentina’s next government.
