Date: 17 August. A second round run-off will be held on 19 October if no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote, or 40% with a lead of at least 10 percentage points over their closest rival.
Type: Presidential and legislative (36 seats in the senate and 130 in the lower chamber).
Main contenders: President Luis Arce (Movimiento al Socialismo, MAS), Evo Morales (MAS), Carlos Mesa (Comunidad Ciudadana), Luis Fernando Camacho (Creemos), Manfred Reyes Villa (Autonomía para Bolivia-Súmate), Jorge Quiroga (independent), Samuel Doria Medina (Unidad Nacional), Vicente Cuéllar (Cambio 25), Amparo Ballivián (independent).
Bolivia’s 2025 elections will be dominated by a man who is currently barred from competing – former president Evo Morales (2006-2019), who faces steep legal barriers in his efforts to return to power and is also under mounting threat from criminal charges. Although a Morales comeback looks like a long shot, he could still derail the re-election efforts of his former ally President Luis Arce as they compete for the candidacy of the ruling left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). The right-of-centre opposition is attempting to unite in order to capitalise on this unprecedented dysfunction within the MAS.
The rupture in the MAS began in 2022, two years into President Arce’s tenure, as attention began to turn to the 2025 election. Over the past three years Morales has launched an intensifying barrage of attacks on the government with the goal of discrediting Arce and replacing him as the MAS candidate. These broadsides have not abated despite a December 2023 constitutional court ruling which effectively dashed Morales’ plan to return to power by establishing a firm limit of two presidential terms, regardless of whether these are consecutive or not.
Morales, who claims that this and other adverse court rulings are part of a campaign of judicial ‘lawfare’ aimed at bolstering Arce, continues to insist that he will stand as a candidate. His best route back into contention is through the judicial elections that were held in December 2024, in which the constitutional court was replaced, paving the way for a reconsideration of presidential term limits. Even if Morales is allowed to compete, it is questionable whether he will be able to do so under the MAS banner, after Arce’s faction won control of the party in November last year following bitter legal wrangling.
Regardless of whether or not he is allowed onto the ballot, Morales remains the biggest threat to Arce’s re-election. If the new constitutional court does allow him to enter the election, then the left-wing vote is likely to be divided roughly in two. This could result in a three-horse race, with Arce and Morales pitted against each other on the left and a conservative candidate aiming to exploit these divisions. Even if Morales remains excluded from the election, Arce could still suffer a significant draining of support if Morales encourages his supporters to vote for a proxy candidate.
Despite winning a thumping victory in the 2020 election with a 27-percentage-point victory over his nearest rival, Carlos Mesa of the centre-right Comunidad Ciudadana (CC), Arce is heading into the 2025 election on far shakier ground. As well as having to contend with bitter divisions in the MAS, he will also need to defend his government’s management of the economy. The past two years have seen a precipitous decline in Bolivia’s reserves of US dollars, largely caused by the dwindling of the country’s gas fields that fuelled a long boom under Morales. Meanwhile, fuel shortages have caused disruption for business and agriculture, while inflation, which remained notably low in the aftermath of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, has surged since July, brushing double figures in December.
Can the opposition sustain a united front?
Amidst these various challenges facing the MAS, the opposition has sensed the opportunity for its first presidential victory since 2002, notwithstanding the disputed 2019 election which resulted in Morales going into exile and interim president Jeanine Áñez (2019-2020) assuming office. Dislodging the MAS will be a monumental undertaking despite the problems facing the government.
The opposition has long been divided between CC – the main centre-right faction led by Mesa – and Creemos, the hard-right party led by the imprisoned Luis Fernando Camacho. Whilst CC enjoys moderate levels of support around the country, it has never been received with any real enthusiasm by voters. Meanwhile, Creemos has deep roots in its eastern stronghold of Santa Cruz department but has struggled to gain traction in the rest of Bolivia. The reluctance of Mesa and Camacho to work together contributed to the scale of Arce’s victory in the 2020 election, when the conservative vote was divided between Mesa, who took 28%, and Camacho, who took 14%, while Arce romped home with 55%.
This time, the opposition is aiming to present a much more united front. Aspiring candidates ranging from the centre to the far-right have grouped together under the banner of the Bloque de Unidad – a so-far informal alliance that, if the deep rivalries within the opposition can be calmed, could enable anti-MAS voters to rally around a single candidate. The alliance includes Mesa, Camacho, former president Jorge Quiroga (2001-2002), cement tycoon Samuel Doria Medina, economist Amparo Ballivián, and the rector of the Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno in Santa Cruz, Vicente Cuéllar.
There are strong reasons to doubt the longevity of this alliance, which Mesa has played the leading role in assembling. Although Mesa, Doria, Quiroga, and a representative of the imprisoned Camacho announced with some fanfare on 18 December that there would be a “sole opposition candidate” in 2025, Quiroga already appeared to have doubts about the endeavour. Just two days earlier he had announced his own presidential campaign, declaring his intention to seize the “once in a lifetime” opportunity to “change the destiny” of the country. Quiroga then renounced his candidacy before the launch of the alliance.
The Bloque de Unidad could also face competition from another old hand on the Bolivian right – Manfred Reyes Villa, mayor of Cochabamba, who ran unsuccessfully in the 2002 and 2009 elections. Reyes Villa has ruled out joining the Bloque de Unidad, dismissing it as a “junta”. However, as of late January he was facing legal barriers, with the supreme electoral court (TSE) preparing to issue a ruling on whether his Súmate grouping should be allowed to compete, as it was previously registered as a civil organisation rather than a political party.
Legislative elections
The legislative elections, which will take place on 17 August alongside the first round of the presidential election, will also have major implications for future governance. Despite the MAS having comfortable majorities of 21 out of 36 seats in the senate, and 75 out of 130 seats in the lower chamber, the government has frequently struggled to pass economic legislation due to hostility from Morales’ faction of the MAS, which has sided with the opposition on crucial votes.
It remains to be seen whether the Morales-Arce rupture will result in the MAS breaking into two separate parties ahead of the election. If it does, the growing fragmentation of the legislature will increase. The era of MAS presidents enjoying sweeping dominance in congress appears to be over even if the party, or a breakaway faction, can hang on to the presidency.
Morales facing possible arrest
Former president Evo Morales has come under mounting legal pressure since late 2024 that could further imperil his efforts of a comeback. Prosecutors in Tarija department have charged Morales with human trafficking in relation to an alleged relationship with an underage girl. An arrest warrant was issued for Morales in December but has not been executed – allegedly due to concerns over police safety. Morales claims that the case is part of a politicised effort to prevent him from challenging President Arce for the presidency.
Morales mulls forming new party
Former president Evo Morales said on 8 December that he is considering forming a new party, after the constitutional court issued a ruling in November last year that handed the party leadership to an ally of President Arce, Grover García, following a long-running legal battle between the two factions. Morales mulled a number of names for this potential new party, some of which bore a suspicious resemblance to his own name – underlining the increasingly personalist nature of his movement. Suggestions included Erradicar a los Violentos Opositores (EVO), Evolución Oriente-Occidente (Evooo), and Estamos Volviendo Obligados por el Pueblo (Evo-Pueblo).
