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Bolivia: During a TV interview with 'CNN', Bolivia's foreign minister, David Choquehuanca, surprisingly announced that Bolivia would be willing to allow the return of US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) agents if the two countries were to restore diplomatic relations within a framework of “mutual respect". Choquehuanca's comment came in response to a question by the network's anchor, who asked him if Bolivia would reconsider its position regarding the DEA in return for US agreement to lift its objection to a Bolivian request before the UN to amend a 50 year old ban on the chewing of coca leaves, as enshrined in the 1961 UN Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs. The Bolivian government is currently analyzing an agreement drafted by Washington with the aim of restoring relations and re-installing ambassadors.

Colombia: On 24 January, Colombia's vice-president, Angelino Garzón, began a week-long trip to the US. Garzón is lobbying for ratification by the US congress of the 2006 Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and the extension of other trade preferences due to expire on 15 February. His scheduled meetings with the US secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, and Labor Secretary Hilda Solí­s will be crucial to this effort. The Democrats in congress have refused to ratify the FTA, citing Colombia's poor human rights track record, with particular emphasis on violence against trade union leaders. Garzón's credentials as a former union leader may be advantageous in overcoming this hurdle. During his 25 January State of the Union address, President Barack Obama was equivocal over whether his administration would support the pending Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Colombia and Panama. Furthermore, President Obama appears to have snubbed President Juan Manuel Santos, who earlier this month had announced that Obama would visit Colombia in February. President Obama will visit Latin America in March, but Colombia will not feature in his trip. The US decision to put some distance between itself and Colombia was underlined in an article (published on 24 February in a Uruguayan newspaper, La República), by Arturo Valenzuela, the assistant secretary of state for western hemisphere affairs and the administration's top policymaker for the region. He said that the US's closest allies in the Southern Cone were Brazil, Colombia, Peru and Chile. Peru has presidential and congressional elections in April, so it was not suitable for a presidential visit in March; the exclusion of Colombia is a clear snub.

Region: President Barack Obama gave his State of the Union address on 25 January, during which he alluded to Latin American concerns three times. The first was to advocate granting US citizenship to Latino graduates of US universities; the second was to announce a trip to Brazil, Chile and El Salvador in March; and the third was to celebrate the role an innovative US company played in the rescue, on 13 October 2010, of the 33 miners trapped underground in Chile. President Obama's involvement in Latin America in the first two years of his term has been minimal: his only trip to the region was the “pre-booked" visit to the Summit of the Americas in Trinidad in April 2009, with a stopover in Mexico en route. The trip to Brazil, Chile and El Salvador looks impromptu: the Salvadorean government said that it did not have firm dates for the visit.

Region: On 26 January, the results of study conducted by a Washington-based NGO, the Center for American Progress (CAP), revealed links between companies that administer US prisons and anti-immigration lobbying groups. According to the study, some companies such as the Corrections Corporation of America (CCA) support legislative initiatives such as the so-called “Arizona Law" because tougher immigration policy translates into more business for the company. The CCA administers 65 prisons and migrant detention centres; the latter generated the company some US$74m in revenue in 2010. A separate investigation by National Public Radio (NPR) showed that the company 'Pershing Square Capital', with an important participation in CCA, recognised that CCA's profitability “depends on a growing number of immigrants in jail".

US courts: A federal court in Houston convicted Tyrone Williams, a truck driver, and sentenced him to 34 years in prison for his part in allowing 19 undocumented migrants to suffocate to death in the back of his truck in May 2003.

Development: On 16 March Colombia regained an investment grade credit rating (BBB- for its foreign debt) from Standard & Poor's (S&P), an international ratings agency.

Significance: Colombia lost its investment grade rating in 1999. An investment grade rating allows tightly regulated US institutional investors to buy the issuer's bonds. The other two main international credit rating agencies, Moody's and Fitch, have been raising Colombia's rating but have yet to rate it investment grade. In the region, S&P rates Barbados, Bermuda, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Montserrat, Panama, Peru and Trinidad & Tobago as investment grade. 

Key points:

S&P argued that Colombia deserved the higher rating because its “resilience against external shocks_[and] growth prospects should contain the public sector's debt burden". This is perverse. Unquestionably, what has improved in Colombia over the past 11 years is the internal security situation. Arguably, the economy is still in a weak position, dependent on oil and coal exports and also on domestic demand in Venezuela and the US. Even the Colombian government expects the fiscal deficit this year to increase (to 4.1%, up from 3.9% of GDP in 2010), while real GDP growth will be between 4% and 4.5% year-on-year.

President Juan Manuel Santos hailed the upgrade. On the presidential website he stated: “This is a certificate of good behaviour_[the upgrade] “allows many [more] companies, funds and institutions with considerable resources to invest in Colombia." He said that he expected domestic interest rates to now fall, which would boost the economy.

S&P also argued that the increasing depth of local Colombian capital plus the low level of international interest rates should mean that Colombia can afford to keep servicing its foreign debt. More controversially, S&P also argued that Colombia now has an “increasingly resilient economy that provides policymakers with greater scope to use countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies."

The short term effects of the upgrade are unlikely to be great. On 16 March, the yield on Colombian bonds fell by 0.14 of a percentage point, suggesting that traders expected more investors to be interested in such securities.

S&P itself admitted that any further upgrades (and Colombia is still only on the lowest rung of the investment grade ladder) would depend on fiscal reforms being implemented and a reduction in the fiscal deficit.

Pointer: The economy has got off to a strong start this year. In January, manufacturing output was up 6.1%, according to a monthly survey by the Asociación Nacional de Empresarios de Colombia (Andi). Domestic manufacturing sales were up 4%, while total manufacturing sales (i.e. including exports) rose 4.8%. Car sales were particularly strong, rising 37% thanks to cheaper credit for new cars. Car imports were up 80% year-on-year in January. Slightly worryingly, industry's use of its installed capacity is now at 75.5%, well above the 2010 average of 72.7% and also above the long term average of 74%. Overall imports in January rose 40% year-on-year to reach a record US$3.77bn. Car imports came to US$412m. The trade balance for January was still just in surplus (US$210m). Colombia's exports to Venezuela have yet to pick up, despite the better relations between the two governments: in January they were down 21% year-on-year at US$77m. Colombian imports from Venezuela were up 60% at US$48m.

*Panama’s government led by President José Raúl Mulino has formally assumed control of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports on the Panama Canal which previously belonged to Panama Ports Company (PPC), a subsidiary of Hong Kong-headquartered CK Hutchison Holdings. The government’s move is in line with a 29 January supreme court (CSJ) ruling which found irregularities in the 2021 extension of the contract to PPC – a decision widely considered a victory for the US which is seeking to reduce Chinese influence in the region and which was blasted by China and CK Hutchison Holdings, which has announced plans to file arbitration proceedings in response. The Mulino government announced yesterday that as per an exceptional “occupation decree”, to guarantee the smooth operation of the ports until a new concession is awarded within 18 months, APM Terminals (APMT), a Netherlands-based subsidiary of Danish shipping company Maersk would take over control of Balboa port, and TIL Panamá, S.A, which is owned by Swiss-based  Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), would assume operations at Cristóbal. The Hong Kong government has responded with a statement released today (24 February) expressing “strong opposition to the Panamanian government’s forced takeover yesterday of the two Panamanian ports”, stating that it “undermines the spirit of contractual obligations”. The statement, which said that the CSJ ruling “disregarded fact and was a breach of faith”, notes that the secretary for commerce and economic development in Hong Kong, Algernon Yau, has lodged a protest with Panama’s consul general in Hong Kong.

Development: On 5 May Mexican billionaire and the world's richest man, Carlos Slim, in Honduras for a government-organised investment fair, expressed an interest in President Porfirio Lobo's proposed model cities.

Significance:   Slim knows a cheap business opportunity when he sees one and the Hondurans will be hoping that other investors will take his cue. The Lobo government is hoping to capture US$15bn (the equivalent of annual GDP) in new investment in the 'Honduras is open for Business' event.  

Key points:

The US undersecretary for international trade, Francisco Sánchez, who attended the fair in the country's main business hub, San Pedro Sula, said that the US government “recognised the important steps taken by the Honduran government to improve the investment climate". The government recently approved five new investment-promotion laws. The US has long been the country's main trade and investment partner, with some 200 US firms operating there.  

President Lobo yesterday congratulated the judiciary for its move to annul corruption charges against the ousted former president, Manuel Zelaya (2006-2009), which should clear the path for the country's reinsertion into regional forums. The hardline president of the supreme court, Jorge Rivera, said earlier this week that the appeals court ruling was “a happy coincidence" for the government. The equally conservative public ministry, which originally levied the charges, is mulling an appeal.

Slim's telecoms operator, América Móvil, recently announced the acquisition of 100% of its Irish rival Digicel's operations in El Salvador and Honduras, and will also begin operating in Costa Rica by year-end.

An Indian investor, Jindal Steel and Power, announced on 21 April that it was interested in taking part in the development of the Mutún iron-ore deposit in southern Bolivia. The deposit is one of the richest iron-ore deposits in the world. The area virtually rusts when it rains.

Successive governments in Bolivia have tried to drum up interest in developing Mutún, which lies in a remote area of the department of Santa Cruz. The current government is planning to invite bids for the concession to develop Mutún in June.

Mutún is in the Provincia Germán Busch. The deposit covers approximately 60 square kilometres and holds and estimated 40bn tonnes of iron ore. The deposit holds three kinds of ore: primary, alluvial, and colluvial. The cost of just building the mine is likely to be between US$400m and US$600m. The plan is then to build a conveyor belt, or a road, to transport the enhanced ore to Puerto Busch on the River Paraguay. The enhanced ore would then be shipped downstream. The one geographical advantage Mutún now has is that the Bolivia-Brazil natural-gas pipeline is only 12km away. 

Building a mine and its associated infrastructure in Mutún will be expensive. The government reckons that it will take US$2.5bn to get the project off the ground. Whether there will be any progress must be doubtful given the Bolivian congress's hostility to the most recent wave of foreign investment that developed the gas industry. 

Congress, under pressure from populists both inside and outside, has voted to jack up the royalty rate for the 76 gas projects authorised since 1986 from 16% to, effectively, 50%. The international energy companies argue that under international agreements the government cannot change the royalty rate. Congress has responded by saying that the 76 agreements were unconstitutional, since the supreme court has ruled that they should have been approved by congress. 

The economic development minister, Walter Kreidler, claims that 15 foreign companies are interested in Mutún. The list is headed by Rio Tinto, the world's biggest base-metals producers, and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce from Brazil.

• Panama: Row over port payments
  
  On 21 April the government broke off negotiations with the Panama Ports Company (PPC), a subsidiary of Hutchinson Whampoa, a Hong Kong Chinese port company, after PPC accused the government of offering credits to two of its rivals. The government has been negotiating with PPC over how PPC should make the payments for the concession it has enjoyed since 1997: the payments were waived by the previous government of President Mireya Moscoso in 2002.
  
  PPC operates the Balboa and Cristóbal ports at either end of the Panama Canal. Originally PPC had agreed to pay US$22m a year plus 10% of the gross income from the ports over the 25-year life of the contract. The companies which, allegedly, were offered loans were Manzanillo International Terminal from the US and Colón Container Terminal from Taiwan. Both companies operate ports on the Caribbean side of the country. 
  
  The government said that the offer of credits was the result of an error by the legal department of the Autoridad Marí­tima de Panamá. The PPC accuses the government of concealing information and of favouritism. The government denies this.

HAITI: Washington condemns recent spate of violence

GUATEMALA: US ambassador considers reviewing weapons ban

VENEZUELA: State department to ascertain if Chávez aids Colombian guerrillas

FLORIDA: Kerry attacks Bush over Cuba

OAS: Speculation rife over next secretary-general

FREE-TRADE REFERENDUM: Trade unionists to collect signatures

HAITI
'Over the past two weeks, pro-Aristide thugs have murdered policemen, looted businesses and public installations, and terrorized civilians. On 11 October, pro-Aristide gunman killed three people in random attacks; there are reports that one parent was killed while walking his child to school,' the spokesman for the US State Department, Richard Boucher said. This is part of 'a systematic campaign to destabilize the interim government,' he added, saying that the violence was reminiscent of 'the worst days of Mr. Aristide's rule, which was characterized by the criminal use of street gangs to spread violence and political repression.' Days earlier, the US Secretary of State, Colin Powell, said 'These are the old Aristide elements and some criminal elements who are trying to take advantage of the situation'. The Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Coha) issued a press release blaming the violence on Powell: 'What Powell refuses to acknowledge is that the recent violence and protests in Haiti are not random acts, but the result of popular resentment against the US-executed coup d'etat which he authored, and which brought about the replacement of Aristide last February with someone whom the citizens view as an imposture (sic).'

GUATEMALA
John Hamilton, the US ambassador to Guatemala, raised the possibility of the government reviewing the congressional ban, passed in 1990, on aid to Guatemala's armed forces. The ban was imposed in response to charges of human rights violations against the military during Guatemala's bloody civil war. Hamilton said that the government was constrained in its ability to combat drug-trafficking by the woefully ill-equipped anti-drug force. 'I think it would make sense for us to put a modest amount of money into spare parts and into enhancing their maintenance capabilities for their intercept aircraft […] I think that Washington is taking a fresh look at the possibility,' Hamilton said. 'It's a combination of our own interest and a feeling that we have a moral obligation to help a government that is really trying hard,' he added. Hamilton said that the increase in cocaine trafficking had contributed to a rash of turf violence 'like something out of The Godfather.'

VENEZUELA
In an unusual Saturday sitting on 9 October, the US congress requested a report from the State Department on links between Colombian guerrillas and foreign governments or groups. The report has to be delivered in 60 days. In its 2004 report on global terrorism, the State Department pointed out that President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela had expressed his ideological support for the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia and the Ejercito de Liberación Nacional. The State Department concluded that this ideological sympathy limited Venezuela's cooperation with Colombia against terrorism. If the State Department report does substantiate links between Chavez and guerrilla groups in Colombia, Venezuela could be subjected to US sanctions. Congress said that the State Department report would be published, though perhaps some annexes would not. Congress also mandated the State Department to draw on help from the Pentagon and the Central Intelligence Agency. Venezuela is already facing problems with the US over allegations that it is not making progress in halting people-trafficking. The US is threatening to block US$250m in loans to Venezuela because of the lack of progress on this issue. The other three countries also identified for a lack of progress were North Korea, Sudan and Cuba.

FLORIDA
The closeness of the US presidential election race in Florida prompted John Kerry, the Democratic Party challenger, to go on to the attack over Cuba. Kerry argued what opinion polls have indicated: that the decision by President Bush in June to restrict visits by Cuban Americans was unpopular and does nothing to bring about a change of regime in Havana. Bush changed the rules so that Cuban Americans can visit Cuba only once every three years rather than once a year. Polling data shows that Kerry is doing well with younger Cuban Americans in Florida who have dependents in Cuba. The Democrats also allege that Bush's tough line with President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela, President Fidel Castro's closest Latin American ally, is also designed to play well with the pivotal Cuban American vote in Florida.

OAS
Speculation over the next secretary-general of the OAS continues, following the resignation of Miguel Angel Rodrí­guez on 8 October to face charges of corruption in Costa Rica. Rodrí­guez's resignation comes into effect on 15 October, when the assistant secretary-general Luigi Einaudi (from the US) will take over while Rodrí­guez's successor is being chosen. The former president of El Salvador, Francisco Flores, is hotly tipped in some quarters as he is close to the US, though other countries in the region have already ruled out his candidacy for precisely that reason. Other candidates mentioned are Chilean interior minister José Miguel Insulza and former Chilean foreign minister Soledad Alvear, as well as former Peruvian president Valentí­n Paniagua and Peruvian foreign minister Manuel Rodrí­guez.

FREE TRADE REFERENDUM
Peruvian social organisations and trade unionists started a campaign on 12 October to collect 100,000 signatures in order to force a referendum on whether the country should enter into a free-trade agreement with the US. Peru, along with Ecuador and Colombia, is in the process of negotiating a free-trade deal with the US, but the US have threatened to drop Peru and Ecuador from the talks unless their governments sort out a number of outstanding legal disputes with US companies. An agreement is due to be reached by February, meaning the free-trade deal would come into effect by mid 2005.

Cuba: A former Reganite secretary of agriculture, John Rusling Block, has lent his voice to a press ad campaign sponsored by the Center for Democracy in the Americas, the Latin America Working Group, and the New America Foundation calling for closer agricultural trade and travel relations with Cuba. Block is quoted in the ad: "It's hard to think of a better expression for the conservative values that brought me to Washington than taking steps now to create profits and jobs here in America, while providing better nutrition, more contacts, and greater hope for the Cuban people."

Cuba: A 10 March amendment to the Cuban Assets Control Regulations makes it easier for Cuba to pay for its imports of US agricultural goods. Previously, Cuban importers had to pay cash in advance to US firms before the goods were even shipped from the US. Under the amendment, Cuban importers will now be able to pay for the goods when they arrive at Cuban ports. This will reduce the financial cost of the transactions, which must go through third-country banks. The amendment is only technically in effect until 30 September 2009, but any contracts signed before that date will be covered for a further 12 months. The expectation is that the new regulation will be rolled over again come September.

Immigration: Immigrants' rights groups in the US say that expulsions of migrants have increased by 50% since President Barack Obama came to power last year. They say that 387,790 immigrants were expelled from the US in 2009. In 2008, the final year of George W. Bush's second presidential term, 264,503 people were deported. The figures come from the Coalition for Humane Immigrant Rights of Los Angeles (Chirla). Chirla is one of the organisations behind a demonstration for immigrants' rights scheduled for 21 March in Washington DC.

Haiti: The US began its withdrawal of troops from the country. It had stationed thousands of troops to assist in efforts to deliver aid and water to victims of the 12 January earthquake. A gradual reduction from a peak of 20,000 in early February has accelerated in recent days. It was unclear how many US troops would remain over the coming months, there are currently an estimated 8,000 still on the Haitian mission, with about half on offshore vessels.

FRIDAY

COSTA RICA: 20 Spanish companies will meet in San José to discuss commercial relations with Costa Rica.

ECUADOR: European officials will hold a press conference to comment on the newly established Constituent Assembly.

PERU: Congreso Americano Upstream, a Peruvian initiative to deal with the oil, energy and food problems, will meet.

SUNDAY

COLOMBIA: International Labour Organization will visit Bogotá to investigate complaints over union rights restrictions.

ECUADOR: The first meeting of the newly established Constituent Assembly will take place.

Since early May, when the Bolivian government decreed the 'nationalisation' of the hydrocarbons sector and the attitudes of several high-ranking Bolivian officials towards Brazil started sounding a decidedly hostile note, speculation began to circulate about preparations for a Brazilian military response. By late May, to the undisguised glee of the Venezuelan opposition media, reports began to appear in the Brazilian press about a thorough review of defence plans, in which Bolivia appears as a hot spot and Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez is seen as a 'destabilising element'. While there is a kernel of truth in this, the broader picture appears to have been blown out of proportion.

The main source for much of the speculation has come from a report published in the newspaper Correio Braziliense on 14 May, which claims that 'intelligence analyses of probable risks concur that peace in South America is uncertain and suggest an urgent strategic review of the national defence policy approved in 2005.' 

Two-step on sensitive exercises
It is well worth noting that the first public reaction in the defence area to the Bolivian nationalisation was the last-minute cancellation by Brazilian defence minister Waldir Pires of the annual Operação Jauru, a combined exercise of the three armed services in support of the federal and state police, simulating actions against smugglers and drug traffickers, and conducted along the border with Paraguay and the non-Amazonian stretch of the border with Bolivia. The reason: the exercises could have given rise to 'eventual erroneous interpretations' at a time when Brazil was involved in acrimonious discussions with Bolivia.

Brazil has not, however, suspended the annual Operação Timbó, joint service exercises that take place, usually in July, along 1,300 kilometres of western and south-western Amazonian border. This year they are designed to focus specifically on the borders of Rondônia and Acre states with Bolivia. According to briefings by the general defence staff in March, this year Operação Timbó will involve simulating the confrontation of conventional forces in a jungle context. The Venezuelan newspaper El Mundo said on 19 May that this reflected Brazilian military concern that Evo Morales might seek to reverse the incorporation of once-Bolivian Acre into Brazil in 1903. This claim can be traced back to an early-May tongue-in-cheek comment in a Brazilian blog: 'We hope that Evo Morales does not decide to invade Brazil, alleging that he was cheated on the Petrópolis Treaty, signed in 1903, in which Bolivia sold Brazil the territory of the state of Acre.' Still, the Brazilian government appears no longer so concerned about bruising Bolivian sensibilities with its military exercises.

Trinidad & Tobago's president, Professor GM Richards, raised the fraught issue of race relations at the ceremonial opening of parliament on 10 September. He said that people were mobilizing around old grievances and he warned against 'identity politics that polarize people and groups'. The 1.3m population of Trinidad & Tobago is made up of 40% of Indian descent, 37.5% of African descent, and 20.5% mixed race. Professor Richards warned: 'We are dangerously close to adopting positions in this country that could, if we are not careful, suppress and ultimately destroy the gains we have accomplished over several years, dating back to the pre-independence era in so far as relative racial harmony is concerned.'

According to the president: 'Even at this stage of our development we ascribe to ethnic groups certain qualities without investigation. Some are described as lazy, rowdy, or irresponsible, others as stingy, yet others as exploitative, all of which could lead to social exclusion.'

Finally, he noted: '42 years after we achieve political independence we can no longer blame the colonist for whatever divisions we construct among ourselves.'

Electoral boundary changes
The main opposition United National Congress (UNC) is opposing a proposal by the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC) to increase the number of constituencies in Trinidad & Tobago from 36 to 41. The UNC says that the boundary changes will favour the ruling People's National Movement (PNM), and it is asking for a change in the way in which electoral boundary changes are dealt with.

 

PEOPLE PROFILE is published every Tuesday and describes the professional background of key people emerging in the political and economic scenario.

Who is Juan Ignacio Siles del Valle?

Bolivia's new foreign minister. He was appointed by President Carlos Mesa, who succeeded his ousted predecessor, Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada, in mid-October after a peasant protest grew into an unstoppable force. Siles del Valle must reposition Bolivia in the international community. His toughest task will be striking a balance between the coca eradication demanded by the US administration and the peasant marchers who opposed it.

The file

Age: 42

Place of birth: La Paz, Bolivia

Education
Literature degree from the Universidad de Chile and Ph. D. in Hispano-American literature from Georgia University in the US. Became head of the literature department at the Universidad Mayor de San Andrés.

Public life
A career diplomat, Siles del Valle has served in Austria and Italy. He was also Bolivia's acting permanent representative to the UN.

Timeline:

1995 Publishes several books including the novel "Que el sueño era tan grande" and the monograph "La guerrilla de Che y la narrativa boliviana" (1997). He also published books of poetry, such as "Canción de Cuna para la muerte de mi madre" (1995).
1996 Finalist for the social-political essay prize of the Casa de las Américas in Havana, Cuba
2000 Director of the diplomatic academy and director of cultural issues at the foreign ministry
2001 Vice-president of the UN committee for the control of drugs, representing Latin America and the Caribbean in Vienna.
2002 Director of Ibero-American summits. Member of the labour group working for a restructuring fund for the development of indigenous peoples.
2003 National coordinator of the XIII Ibero-American summit of heads of state and government.
2003 Appointed foreign minister by Mesa.

Strong points
He is a career diplomat. He does not have party political affiliations but comes from the same stock as Mesa: they are both journalists and literary men. He is well known and respected in the foreign ministry, which ensures - in the heart of a socially and politically divided nation - the minimum support to try and get Bolivia back into the concert of Latin American nations. He has a socio-economic vision similar to Mesa and removed from the hardline neoliberalism of Sánchez de Lozada.

Weak points
He has no party base and little negotiating experience. He has the mother of all negotiations lying ahead: persuading the US to relax its coca eradication demands in order to appease peasants and avoid another social uprising.

Prospects
He will have the unqualified support of Brazil and Argentina, who are both concerned that Bolivia stays on the democratic straight and narrow. Presidents Lula da Silva and Néstor Kirchner have vowed to follow the evolving crisis closely and intervene if the US increases the pressure on coca-growing peasants to the extent that Mesa's government is put in jeopardy.

On the controversial gas issue, Siles has another unenviable task. Opposition to the use of a Chilean port to export the gas was the main factor uniting protesters against Sánchez de Lozada, while the international consortium pacific LNG is reluctant to use a Peruvian port because of the additional distance involved. Of mixed Bolivian and Chilean parentage, although he was born in Bolivia, Siles is a polemical appointment. Despite his family background, Siles says he will support Bolivia's time-honoured demands for access to the Pacific.

Who is she?
An economist, social activist and politician, in February 2009 Campbell stepped down as president of the leftist opposition Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), a party she helped found with Ottón Solí­s in 2000, in order to seek nomination as its presidential candidate for the February 2010 general elections.

As a young black woman, aged just 46, Campbell is one of the highest achieving and most high profile new politicians in Costa Rica.

Why watch her?
If Campbell secured the PAC nomination, she could potentially face another woman, Laura Chinchilla of the ruling Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), in the presidential race. That would be a defining moment for Costa Rica, which has never had a female president. The fact that two women (one of whom is black and a single mother) are seeking the highest office in the land highlights the impact of the 1996 electoral code reform, which requires parties to make sure that at least 40% of their candidates are women. Campbell wants Costa Rica to reach the 50/50 threshold.

Representative of a younger generation anxious for change at a time of growing economic uncertainty, and a leading advocate of a more inclusive and socially amorphous 'next generation' type of politics, Campbell has quickly gained stature, both in Costa Rica and in the wider region. She is also increasingly visible further afield, particularly since the US has elected its first Afro-American president, Barack Obama, whom she cites as an influence.

Born:  1963, San José. Campbell is of Jamaican descent; her paternal grandparents emigrated to Costa Rica.

Education:  Attended local public primaries (Las Gravilias and Ricardo Jiménez Oreamuno) in San José to 1975.

Secondary education at the Franco Costarricense Lyceum and the Colegio Superior de Señoritas, San José. A student leader and accomplished musician, she played the flute and saxophone in the Symphonic Youth Orchestra from 1976 to 1983.

Enrolled in the University of Costa Rica, before later moving to the regional province of Limón (home to most of Costa Rica's population of African [specifically Jamaican] descent), where she continued to work and study, and where she first became interested in women's and black issues. She married at a young age (20) and had two daughters during this period.
Moved to the Caribbean for 10 years, before returning to San José.

1998  - BA in Economics, Universidad Latina de Costa Rica.

2008 - MA in Development Cooperation, Fundación Cultural y de Ciencias Sociales de España.

Public Life: Founded the PAC in 2000 with Solis. It put in an unexpectedly strong showing in the 2002 general elections, with presidential runner Solis taking 26% of the vote, forcing an unprecedented run-off between the PLN and the other traditional Partido de Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC). Campbell took up one of 14 PAC seats in the 57-seat congress and the PAC quickly became established as the country's second party, displacing a discredited PUSC. In 2005 Campbell was voted the most popular deputy in congress in a public survey.

Campbell ran as the PAC vice presidential candidate in the February 2006 elections, when Solí­s, on his second attempt, lost the presidential vote by a tiny margin (of less than 2%, or some 3,300 votes).

After losing the 2006 election, Solis led the PAC into opposition against the government, and spearheaded the close fought and bitterly divisive political campaign against President Oscar Arias's move to bring Costa Rica into the US-Central America Free Trade Agreement (Cafta), which finally took effect on 1 January 2009.  Campbell was firmly against the Cafta.

She has also been heavily involved in several women's and Afro-Latin American groups, including the Women's Forum for Central American Integration, the Centre for Afro-Costa Rican Women, the Alliance of Latin American and Caribbean leaders of African descent and the Black Parliament of the Americas, among others.

Timeline:

2000: Co-founds PAC

2002-2006: PAC congressional deputy

2006: PAC vice presidential nominee, the country's first ever female vice presidential candidate

2005-2009: PAC party president

January 2009: Announces bid for party presidential nomination for 2010

February 2009: Alberto Cañas Escalante replaces Campbell as PAC president

Strengths: Campbell's youth and dynamism appeal to next generation voters. She has pioneered the use of the internet and social networking sites to promote her political campaign. In January 2009, for instance, Campbell announced her intention to seek the PAC presidential nomination via the social messaging network, Twitter. A recent survey of the main presidential candidates in 2010, published in the daily La Nacion, found that Campbell had the most Facebook friends of the six main presidential contenders. Her PLN rival Chinchilla was the most active 'Tweeter'.

Formally confirming her decision to stand on 16 February, Campbell declared that “the hour has come" (her campaign slogan) and the time was ripe for “more citizen action".

She also said it was time to create new national accords and to renew the country's political leadership, in an effort to get past “post-referendum" Costa Rica. Reaching across the political divide may be Campbell's best hope of overcoming the PAC's divisive reputation and consolidating her candidacy against the traditional wing of the PAC, led by Solí­s.

In policy terms, Campbell's main economic and political proposals, which centre on social justice and the promotion of sustainable economic growth with equity, echo her party's inclusive centre left, social democratic ethos. Her training as an economist shows, with her 10-point plan for '21st Century Costa Rica' grounded in reality rather than leftwing radicalism.

Weaknesses: Campbell (and the PAC) have been tainted by their militant and divisive anti-Cafta stance. After a wobble last year, the electorate has swung back behind the government of President Oscar Arias. Polls show that the public trusts the ruling PLN more on the economy, and the its approval ratings have risen during the economic crisis.

Arguably, having lost the Cafta battle, the PAC has now somewhat lost its political way, and tellingly, Solis has not been able to inflict any damage on the Arias government over the crisis, which has hit Costa Rica hard due to its heavy reliance on export-led growth (the US is its main trading partner).

Her youth and inexperience in political office may also count against Campbell in these crisis times.

Prospects: The PAC convention is on 30 May. Four candidates are competing for the party nomination (Campbell, Solí­s, Román Macaya and Manuel Sánchez). Amid rumours of tensions within the PAC between the traditional Solis faction and a more reformist branch, headed by Campbell, the party appears to be having something of an identity crisis, and looks ill placed against the incumbent PLN ahead of the 2010 elections.

While Campbell trails Solí­s in PAC party member surveys, her pressure to open up the convention to new party members (who must register by 30 April to be eligible to vote in the primary) could throw open the contest on the day, which she hopes will work in her favour. Campbell's insistence that she would only run if the PAC held an open primary exacerbated the tensions with Solí­s.

Most polls still give Solis victory in the May primaries. Yet given her growing electoral appeal, Campbell would likely be Solí­s's running mate again, which might help paper over the growing splits in the party.

There is a slight chance that she might eventually opt to breakaway from Solis and PAC altogether, although this would leave her without the umbrella of a national political grouping.

Whatever the result of the May contest, Campbell will remain a figure to watch.

A multiple killing with seven victims triggered in early May a wave of demonstrations and marches across Mexico that culminated with tens of thousands in front of the presidential palace demanding an end to violence and a change in the government's antidrugs policy. The driving force behind this upheaval was the poet and columnist Javier Sicilia, father of one of the victims — who has been calling explicitly for a pact with the drug cartels. With elections looming, President Felipe Calderón felt compelled to hold two successive personal meetings with Sicilia.

The multiple killing took place in Temixco, Morelos, on 27 March. The investigation into the event was anything but straightforward. At one point, focusing on the fact that one of the victims (uncle of another two) was a former army officer, led the chief state prosecutor to suggest that there might have been former officials, police officers or members of the military involved. He also said that some of the victims were thought to have been involved in drug trafficking.

Later, in mid-April, the staged ‘handover' of a purported killer by the Gulf cartel misdirected investigators as to the motive and details of the crime, but pointed them towards the certainty that the killers belonged to the Pacífico Sur cartel, led by Héctor Beltrán Leyva. Several members of this organisation were arrested and the authorities said they had confessed (and revealed that they had enjoyed police protection in Morelos). At the time of writing, the motive for the crime remains unclear.

President Calderón called Sicilia immediately after the killing to express his condolences. On 4 April he held a meeting with him in the presidential residence and promised a swift, in-depth investigation. Frustrated at the pace, Sicilia launched the campaign that would include marches and rallies in at least 24 cities across the country and culminated on 8 May in the Zócalo square in front of the presidential palace. The police estimated the crowd at 24,000; the organisers talked about more than 50,000, and some estimates went as high as 100,000. The participants drew up a document calling for a broad ‘pact' to refocus the antidrugs policy. On 9 May Calderón held a second meeting with Sicilia.

The ‘pact' outline by the demonstrators was a far-reaching one, but the proposal that has attracted most attention has been Sicilia's call for a deal with the drug cartels. His main argument is that it is up to the US, not to Mexico, to deal with its problem of drug consumption. For Mexico, allowing the passage of drugs to the US is opting for the lesser evil. ‘We put the war, the deaths and the anguish and [the US] goes on introducing weapons without reducing the drug indicators. The drugs trade continues. The US doesn't care; it is not helping us at all. The mafias are here, so we should strike a pact. There are their corridors; let them flood the US with drugs. Why should we be covering their backs.'

At the very least, says Sicilia, a ‘pact of honour' must be struck, under which Mexico legalises drugs and deals with them as a public health problem and leaves the cartels free to operate according to the laws of the market and to go on supplying the US. In exchange, ‘they don't touch the civilian population, they don't murder innocent people and the prisoners of the warring parties should be treated respecting their human rights.' As Sicilia sees it, there is no real alternative for Mexican society: ‘All wars end in pacts; when the destruction is over, they end in pacts, and this will end in a pact, sooner or later.' For the cartels, he says, the alternative is to return to their old codes of not touching the uninvolved population, or to end up ‘ruling over corpses'.

Development: On 30 June Bolivia's President, Evo Morales, and his Argentine counterpart, Cristina Fernández, formally inaugurated (via satellite link-up from the Casa Rosada in Buenos Aires) the Juana Azurduy gas pipeline (GIJA) in Bolivia's Yacuiba province.

Significance: The pipeline, which allows Bolivia to increase its natural gas exports to Argentina (its second biggest market after Brazil) from the current maximum of 7.7m cubic metres/day (cmpd) to 11.3m cmpd, is the first stage of a plan to boost exports to 27.7m by 2026. This is important given the intention by Brazil (to which Bolivia is currently contracted to supply 30.5m cmpd) to reduce its contracted imports to 24m cmd from 2015.

Key points:

• The pipeline, 48km in length (13km in Bolivian territory) connects the Bolivian region of Tarija with Argentina's Salta province. It is in line with a project first floated in 2006 by Morales and Fernández's late husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner (2003-2007), formalized in 2010. The GIJA will eventually link up to Argentina's planned north-east pipeline (GNEA).

• The Bolivian government insists that the new pipeline will help to ensure that Bolivia can meet all of its gas export commitments. Concerns about this were heightened in April, after a new study put Bolivia's proven gas reserves at 9.94 trillion cubic feet (TCF), lower than the 26.7TCF reported in 2005. The revised figures mean that Bolivia went from having the second biggest gas reserves in region to the fifth, behind Venezuela (200TCF); Argentina (13.2TCF); Brazil (12.7 TCF); and Peru (11.2 TCF). President Fernández yesterday (30 June) pointed to the competitive advantages of continuing to import gas from Bolivia, noting that Argentina pays Bolivia US$4 per million BTU (British Thermal Units) – compared to average retail prices of US$22 in Brazil and US$14 in Chile.

• In the first quarter of 2011, Bolivia's hydrocarbon exports were worth US$840m (accounting for 46% of the value of total exports), up 39% year-on-year. The government attributed the increase to higher prices, rather than additional volume sales.

Development: On 12 May Nicaragua's leading business group, Grupo Pellas, announced it was buying a majority stake in a leading national daily, El Nuevo Diario, which earlier in the week had reported that it was facing financial problems and was looking for a buyer.

Significance: The takeover puts paid to growing fears that President Daniel Ortega and his ruling Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN), which already has 12% stake in the newspaper, were planning to buy a majority share. Given that the FSLN already controls most of the country's institutions, leading civil society groups, such as Centro Nicaragüense de Derechos Humanos (a human rights NGO), had expressed concerns about press freedom.

Key points:

• El Nuevo Diario and La Prensa are Nicaragua's two leading independent papers, both owned by the Chamorro clan, one of the country's oldest families, which also forms part of the Pellas clan. El Nuevo Diario was founded in 1980 as a pro-Sandinista paper by Xavier Chamorro, following differences with his brother, Pedro Joaquín Chamorro, editor of La Prensa, and a leading opponent of the Anastasio Somoza dictatorship (1974-1979). Pedro Joaquín Chamorro was assassinated in 1978 and his wife, Violetta Barrios Torres de Chamorro, went on to become president (1990-7).

• The Pellas group didn't provide specifics about the terms of the deal.

• Fears regarding a possible FSLN takeover follow the purchase by Albanisa, the main local operation of the Venezuela-led Alianza Bolivariana para los pueblos de Nuestra América (Alba) initiative (and closely linked to Ortega), of a local TV station, previously critical of Ortega, in January 2010. This gave the government control of two of the ten most watched TV channels.

• Concerns about press freedom were highligted in two recent reports, one by the NGO Freedom House and the other by the US State Department in its annual human rights report. The former noted the closure of five opposition radio stations over the last couple of years. The US report cited, among other concerns, complaints by opposition news sources that the government "continued to exclude independent media outlets from all official media events and withhold government advertising contracts".

It is not every day that governments hold on to the most pessimistic forecast of economic performance, yet that is what the Uribe administration is doing. It insists on predicting that GDP growth this year will be about 2%. Private economists (and some officials speaking off the record) say that it is likely to be at least 2.5%. 

This view is supported by the latest estimate of second-quarter growth by Santiago Montenegro, head of the national planning department, DNP. On 1 August he said, 'It will not be as good [as the 3.8% recorded in the first quarter] but we can say with considerable certainty that it will be 3% or somewhat more.' 

Montenegro pointed to the reduction of the unemployment rate, from 16% to 14.2%, as a clear sign that the economy is recovering and that some sectoral policies are beginning to make an impact on the jobs market. This, he said, is making the government 'optimistic but not triumphalistic.'

BRAZIL | Touching bottom? Some industries are predicting an economic upswing in the last quarter of the year, based on the prospect of a bumper harvest and signs that job losses have tapered off. Meanwhile, the official statistics show a further decline in the second quarter of the year: GDP was 1.6% lower than in the first quarter - a far steeper fall than the 0.1% recorded between the last quarter of 2002 and the first quarter of this year. With the QII fall, first-half GDP was 0.3% lower than in the same period of 2002.

With two quarters running of GDP decline, Brazil is technically in recession. The official statistical institute, Ibge, has dismissed this by saying that `the concept of recession is quite complex and its interpretation is quite subjective.'

ARGENTINA | Wrist-slap with last IMF disbursement. On 28 August the IMF board approved the release of the remaining US$310m of the current US$3bn standby arrangement. The announcement included a slap on Argentina's wrist for having incurred in a `breach of obligation' by misreporting the number of `competitiveness' (tax break) schemes that had been eliminated. 
After saying that this was `highly regrettable', the Fund granted a waiver.

A day earlier Argentina's chamber of deputies had approved two related laws promised to the IMF, one establishing deposit recovery priorities when banks go under (small depositors first) and barring provincial and municipal governments from issuing quasi-currencies, the other allowing the central bank to lend to the executive for the purpose of repaying multilateral lenders.

CHILE | Industrial output down ... or up. The national statistical institute, INE, reports that industrial output in the first seven months of the year was 3.2% higher than in the same period of last year, but that in July it was down 2.9% year-on-year. (Sales appeared headed in the other direction: up 3% in the first half, 3.2% in July). Not for the first time, the industrialists' association, Sofofa, disagreed. Their figures for July showed production up 0.6% (yoy), and sales also up, but only by 0.5%.

Reproof and threats from outsiders are shrugged off, and repression of opposition protests continues unabated.

Last Tuesday was an important date for Haiti: it marked the 200th anniversary of a crucial battle in the struggle for independence from France. Almost all of the diplomatic corps stayed away to signal reproof of the manner in which a pro-Aristide mob had been mobilised the previous week to disrupt a protest demonstration by the opposition.

US ambassador James Foley issued a public warning against Haiti falling back into `its historical past of authoritarian government, misrule and abuse of human rights.' According to Radio Kiskeya, additional pressure was applied in the form of the decision to cancel the US tourist visa of interior minister Jocelerme Privert, the man reputed to have been leading the bloody repression of the Armée Cannibale, starting with the late September murder of its leader, Amiot Metayer [WR-03-38].

It did not seem to make much of a difference: on 20 November the police were forcibly breaking up an opposition demonstration in Petit-Goave. Haiti's leaders are sanguine about threats from the US, which has invaded them thrice, the first time (in 1915) installing a military occupation that lasted for 19 years. The third, ironically, was the one in 1994 to restore Aristide to power.

The Aristide administration justifies its actions claiming that the opposition coalition, Convergence Démocratique, is only interested in destabilising the government, not in reaching an agreement to clear the way for new elections. The outside forces seeking to broker a solution, led by the OAS, note that the government has failed to comply with a series of demands, including the disbanding of the pro-government mobs, the appointment of a non-partisan police chief and the prosecution of those who attacked members of the opposition after what the government portrayed as a failed coup in December 2001. Nobody now believes that credible legislative elections can be held, as scheduled, before the end of the year, or even in early 2004.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | Funds & power flow again. The IMF approved last week the Dominican Republic's economic performance in its first review of the US$657m standby agreement signed last August. Consequently, it has cleared the disbursement of a second tranche of US$66m.

On the power front it is the pesos rather than the generals that are doing the trick. Following part payment of the government's overdue debt with the generating companies [WR-04-06], several of these have resumed normal operation, more than halving the electricity deficit to 200-300MW in peak hours. This has translated into fewer and shorter blackouts.

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC | Tourism on sharp upswing. Central bank figures show that last year the number of tourist arrivals increased by 19.5%, to 3.2m (of which 523,000 were Dominicans resident abroad). Per capita they seem to be spending less: revenues from tourism were up only 14%, to US$3.1bn. Both figures, incidentally, were new records; they overtook the previous peak year of 2000, when 2.9m visitors generated revenues of US$2.86bn.

The Dominican Republic registered the highest growth rate in the Caribbean last year, followed by Cuba (up 13%), Jamaica (+7%) and Puerto Rico (+5%) — according to the World Tourism Organisation (WTO). The Dominican upswing is continuing into this year: arrivals in January were 7.7% higher than a year earlier. For this year the WTO has forecast a 3.9% expansion of tourism in the Caribbean as a whole.

CENTRAL AMERICA | First steps towards customs union. Guatemalan President Oscar Berger is predicting that his country will be able to agree to establish a customs union with neighbouring El Salvador `within 90 days'. Honduras, he said last week, has asked for a bit more time. Berger will be broaching the subject with his Salvadorean peer Francisco Flores at the summit he will be hosting on 27 February.

PERU | Growth outlook. Economic activity in the first quarter was up 3.9% on the same period of last year, according to the research centre of the Cámara de Comercio de Lima. This falls short of the 4.2% rate it had predicted for both the first half and the whole of this year. The chamber noted, also, that the rate is well short of the annual 7% Peru would need in order to absorb the new entrants to the labour market (about 1,000 a day on average).

The main driving force in the first quarter was mining, up 12.4%, thanks to the combination of better world prices, the recovery of manufacturing (up 5%) and US trade preferences. Fishing was up 6.5%; agriculture, a mere 1.3%, only slightly ahead of the 1.2% recorded by both commerce and construction.

The Sociedad Nacional de Minerí­a, Petróleo y Energí­a (SNMPE) reports that mineral exports in the first quarter earned US$1.5bn, or 52.3% more than in the comparable period of 2003.

ECUADOR | Raiding rainy-day fund. Even though the oil industry is what has been keeping Ecuador's dollarised economy going, it has not been producing enough to take full advantage of the upward swing in world prices, and the economy has been drained of liquidity. President Lucio Gutiérrez has announced that he will tap the Feirep fund (meant to be use for stabilisation, investment and debt reduction) for some US$200m (about 30% of its holdings) to finance several projects in the areas of health, education and social welfare.

He has also urged congress to pass as soon as possible a set of reforms to the oil legislation, which it has been sitting on for a couple of years. The idea is to offer incentives for private oil companies to invest in the sector. Gutiérrez has said that if action is not taken promptly, he will repackage the legislation as an `urgent' law which must be approved in two months. He also announced that he would be submitting draft legislation to attract foreign investment towards hydro projects.