Caribbean & Central America - 16 November 2004

Domestic politics in El Salvador are almost certain to remain polarised for the next three years. On 7 November, the leftwing opposition party, Frente Farabundo Martí­ para la Liberación Nacional (FMLN) held internal elections for the position of secretary general. The upshot was that the orthodox faction saw their man, Medardo González, triumph over the reformist current, represented by Oscar Ortiz, the mayor of Santa Tecla. Slightly over 50% of the FMLN's 90,000 members turned out to vote.

González will now set the agenda in advance of the next presidential elections. His victory shows that the party orthodoxy retains an iron grip on the FMLN despite the fact that the candidate it backed for the presidency, Schafik Hándal, suffered a resounding defeat at the hands of the ruling rightwing Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (Arena) in the elections eight months ago.  

González's triumph means that Hándal's defeat on 21 March has not presaged a changing of the guard. Indeed, Hándal might run again for the presidency. It also means that President Tony Saca will find it much harder to strike up a working relationship with the FMLN.

A 52-year old former guerrilla leader during the civil war, González continues the tradition of ultra-orthodox party leaders with strong links to the country's violent past. He took 54% of the vote as against 46% for Ortiz. González served as campaign coordinator for Schafik Hándal in the run-up to the elections in March.  

An ominous warning was sent out to reformist 'dissenters' on 2 November when the FMLN party leadership expelled party deputy, Miguel Navarrete, for voting with Arena in congress on a fiscal-reform package. After his election, González repeated the need for the FMLN to unite: 'We must channel all of our energy into strengthening and uniting our party to defeat the right, which is doing so much damage to the country,' he said.  

Uniting the party will not be easy. Quite apart from the 'damage' that President Saca might or might not be doing to El Salvador, if recent polls are anything to go by then it is the divisive figure of Hándal that is inflicting 'damage' on the FMLN. According to a survey carried out by LPG Datos for the national daily La Prensa Gráfica to coincide with the FMLN internal elections, the veteran hardliner is the biggest cause of friction between the reformist and orthodox factions in the party, which otherwise are separated by little.  

The results of the survey show that some 82% of reformists would reject Hándal's candidacy for the presidency, while 62% of the orthodox faction would support him again. The survey took a cross section of FMLN members who voted in the elections. It revealed that 36% of respondents consider themselves to be socialists; 21% define themselves as communists, and a further 20% as social democrats.

The main reason for the success of the FMLN's rightwing adversary, Arena, at a national level is its ability to embrace change: there are plenty of party reactionaries but they work behind the scenes. The problem for the FMLN is that, although the orthodox faction remains popular with party members (as the elections results show), its continued presence at the helm tends to reduce its appeal in the eyes of the rest of the population that might otherwise be drawn to the party.