Caribbean & Central America - 16 November 2004

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Democracy in trouble

Caribbean 17 November 2004 Modified: 17 November 2004 293 views

Democracy is not flourishing in the Dominican Republic, according to a survey released by the think tank Pontificia Universidad Católica Madre Y Maestra. The survey shows that a mere 19% of respondents are happy with the way that democracy is functioning, 19% are not happy with it and a significant 62% are indifferent to the system.

The National Survey on Democracy and Political Culture reflects a trend visible across Latin America, where democratic governments often are not considered tough enough to deal with problems such as violent crime. While 74% of respondents said they wanted democracy, 66% said they wanted the government to be much harder on criminals. The perceived opinion is that the two do not mix.

The survey showed that security forces, and in particular the military, are held in far higher esteem than government institutions. The military came out on top of the list with a 38.9% acceptance rate, followed by city mayors and then the justice department. The national police got a 33% approval rating while the legislature and the executive branches received 28% and 23% respectively (although to be fair to President Leonel Fernández the survey was conducted between January and March 2004 before he even came to power).

The majority of the 4,460 individuals interviewed for the survey expressed their disillusionment with the quality of basic services such as water, electricity, education, transportation and health. The government stepped up its campaign against crime in October. Fernández sent 15,000 police officers onto the streets to patrol crime hotspots and ordered a cleanup of the national police force, which has been tainted by corruption, including the appropriation of cars recovered from thieves.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

Congress is confusing the government's plan to increase pay rates. The senate agreed on 3 November to a government proposal to increase minimum wages by 30%. Under the terms of the controversial law, private sector employees will see their pay rise three days after the bill finally becomes law while public sector employees will have to wait until 1 January 2005 before their pay rises. Separately, deputies agreed to increase the minimum wage from US$57 a month to US$121, though it is not clear whether the private sector will also be subjected to this change. Private-sector employers are unwilling to increase anybody's pay (except those on the minimum wage) due to the dim economic outlook. The Consejo Nacional de la Empresa Privada recommends that private-sector employers increase pay by 25% if they can afford to. The 30% increase in wages would consume approximately RD$8bn (US$313m) of the 2005 budget.

Outlook

GDP: GDP growth was 1.4% for the first eight months of the year compared to the same period last year, the governor of the central bank, Héctor Valdez said.
Inflation: Inflation in October was 1.35%, bringing the rate for the first 10 months of the year to 32.9%. The lagging 12-month rate is 46%. The central bank is forecasting that inflation this year will be 36%. President Leonel Fernández said on 10 November that the government was determined to bring the inflation rate down to just a single digit in 2005. The Dominican peso has recovered much of its value since Fernández was inaugurated in August; it has bounced back from nearly RD$50 to US$1 under the previous administration to RD$25 to US$1.