Caribbean & Central America - 16 November 2004

The Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) remains in disarray as it struggles to elect a successor to Edward Seaga following his 30-year domination of the party. The intention was to replace Seaga at the JLP's annual conference on 6 November, but a bitter internal contest between leadership aspirants Pearnel Charles and Bruce Golding which has gone to the courts meant that on 10 November Seaga agreed to stay on for the immediate future.

Charles got an injunction ahead of the conference to prevent the election of a new party leader on the grounds that more than 2,000 names had been illegally added to the delegates' list. The Supreme Court has scheduled 14 December as the date for the start of legal hearings over the disputed list. 

All this is, of course, playing into the hands of the People's National Party (PNP), which has been in power for more than 15 years but which should be vulnerable on such issues as violence given that more than 1,200 people have been murdered since January. 

The economy is also faltering as a result of Hurricane Ivan. GDP growth projections for 2004-05 have been lowered to 2% from 2.6%, while inflation is now expected to be 11% rather than 9% (it was 16% in the 2003-04 fiscal year). The current account deficit is expected to widen to US$757.2m compared with earlier projections for a current account gap of US$722.4m for the current fiscal year.

Hurricane Ivan, which killed at least 19 people in Jamaica in September, caused US$590m in damage, amounting to 8% of GDP.