Caribbean & Central America - April 2006 (ISSN 1741-4458)

The active participation of the US ambassador Paul Trivelli in Nicaragua's electoral process is eliciting comment in domestic political circles. Many within the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC), a traditional ally of the US, object to Trivelli stigmatising the party for retaining its allegiance to convicted former president Arnoldo Alemán; the opposition Frente Sandinista de Liberación Nacional (FSLN) accuses Trivelli of interfering in Nicaragua's domestic affairs and conspiring to keep it out of power. The government, meanwhile, is opting to defend Trivelli's right to express his opinion.

Trivelli has a clear objective and is working to a tight deadline. He wants to unify the divided political Right in Nicaragua before the 11 May, the final day for parties to register for elections on 5 November. The Right is currently fractured: the PLC, the Alianza Liberal Nicaragüense-Partido Conservador (ALN-PC) and the Alianza por la República (APRE) are each intent on fielding a separate presidential candidate. 

Trivelli refused to recognise the legitimacy of a series of nationwide conventions that culminated in the nomination of José Rizo as the PLC presidential candidate on 2 April. He branded Rizo Alemán's stooge. On 17 April Trivelli met representatives from the PLC to encourage them to hold fresh primary elections to choose a new candidate. He also met PLC dissident Eduardo Montealegre who is running for the ALN-PC. 

Montealegre leads the way ahead of November's elections with 22% of the vote, according to a poll released by CID-Gallup on 19 April. Montealegre, who was expelled from the PLC last year after falling out with Alemán, said he would not ally himself with the PLC while Alemán continued to pull the strings. Rizo has ruled out an accommodation with Montealegre, who he accuses of "staining the pure red" of Nicaraguan liberalism.

The third party which Trivelli wants to bring into a broad Liberal coalition, Apre, is yet to hold primaries pitting José Antonio Alvarado against Francisco Fiallos. Apre is made up of former PLC members who sided with President Enrique Bolaños after the PLC went into opposition when Bolaños had Alemán convicted for corruption in 2003.

"The obstacle to unification in this country, a big obstacle for democracy in this country is Arnoldo Alemán," Trivelli said after meeting Montealegre. Trivelli's words have caused the PLC to squirm but it has made no move to reduce the influence of Alemán. Trivelli admitted that he faced a very difficult task in a short time as there was "little common ground" between the representatives of the parties with which he had spoken. On 23 April both the PLC and the ALN-PC took up still more entrenched positions; both parties ratifying their candidates, Rizo and Montealegre, for the elections.

Interference or helping hand?

Ambassador Trivelli's involvement in the contest earned him criticism from politicians of all colouration. FSLN leader Daniel Ortega made it very clear that he felt Trivelli had overstepped the mark. "You have to have real cheek to speak the way that man does; it's incredible," he said. Jaime Morales, an independent said, "it's almost as if he (Trivelli) is participating in the electoral contest". He added: "You never see ambassadors in other countries interfering so much."

The foreign minister, Norman Caldera, however, leapt to Trivelli's defence. "Those countries that cooperate with Nicaragua on an economic level have the right to speak out," he said. The US, he added, was in a position to say "if you want to continue to receive our funds_ I am going to say under which conditions I offer this cooperation." The president of the supreme electoral council (CSE), Roberto Rivas, said that Nicaragua should pass a law punishing "as a traitor to the country all those officials that allow a foreigner to make comments interfering in the domestic affairs of the country." (The Bush Administration revoked Rivas's US visa in July 2005 for alleged corruption).

Polls give it to Montealegre_ just

The polls have come out with some wildly differing results in recent months but they have all put Montealegre on top. A CID-Gallup poll, released on 19 April, is interesting because it is the first time that Rizo has been included since he was nominated as candidate for the PLC. Rizo came fourth with 13% support behind Herty Lewites, the candidate for the Movimiento Renovador Sandinista (MRS) with 18%, and Ortega with 16%. Some business donors to Montealegre's ALN-PC are reputedly disappointed with his party's showing in the elections in the autonomous regions, RAAN and RAAS, in March (see RC-06-03), where the PLC was the star performer. They might decide to throw in their lot with Rizo, particularly if he starts to pick up in the polls. Montealegre is hoping that the "handpicked" selection of Rizo will prompt a further exodus of disgruntled PLC members into his ALN-PC.