Caribbean & Central America - April 2025

On 1 March a Venezuelan coastguard vessel entered Guyana’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ), approaching FPSO Prosperity, an oil rig operated by US firm ExxonMobil, and demanding information from its crew. This led to a new surge in diplomatic tension between the two countries over the oil-rich Essequibo region, which lies within Guyana’s internationally recognised waters but is claimed by Venezuela.

Guyana’s government reacted by condemning the incursion and mobilising the air force, while reiterating its commitment to find a peaceful settlement to the longstanding dispute over the Essequibo, a 160,000km² area that Venezuela has historically claimed as its own. The Caracas government denied that the Venezuelan vessel had entered Guyana’s EEZ, alleging that the encounter took place in a “maritime zone pending delimitation in accordance with international law”.

The incident has had various ramifications. Guyana’s President Irfaan Ali has briefed Caribbean Community (Caricom) members who have supported his country’s long-standing call for the Essequibo dispute to be adjudicated by the International Court of Justice (ICJ). In contrast, citing a 1966 agreement with the UK, which was then the colonial power in Guyana, Venezuela favours a renegotiation of the dispute.

In the last few years Venezuela has made various aggressive attempts to assert sovereignty in the disputed area. Backed by a December 2023 referendum it declared the creation of a new Venezuelan state named Guayana Esequiba in the disputed area. Venezuela’s national electoral council (CNE) has announced plans to elect a governor and local deputies for the ‘state’ in Venezuela’s 25 May regional and municipal elections, despite the Essequibo remaining under full Guyanese control.

President Ali says this is in direct contradiction to ICJ rulings asking the parties not to innovate. He also claims it violates the spirit of the Argyle Accords, reached in December 2023 between the two countries, in which they pledged to de-escalate tensions and avoid the use of force.

One not insignificant factor in the rising tension is the presence of large oil and mineral resources in the Essequibo. However, a US think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), highlights other factors as well. One is that the claim to the Essequibo has cross-party support in Venezuela, and for an unpopular government helps create a “rally round the flag effect” among the armed forces and Maduro’s political base.

Another is that it might provide a bargaining chip in Venezuela’s evolving relationship with the US, at a time when President Donald Trump is increasing pressure on Maduro by ratcheting up sanctions, deporting Venezuelans, and threatening tariffs on Venezuela’s remaining oil buyers.