Caribbean & Central America - September 2025

President Bernardo Arévalo met with Mexican counterpart Claudia Sheinbaum in Guatemala’s Petén department on 15 August, with the pair agreeing to work together on development, security, energy, and railway projects, as well as migration.

Key discussions between the two presidents include building a new railway line that would connect Guatemala to Mexico’s recently inaugurated Tren Maya line, which runs around the Yucatán peninsula in the southeast of the country, with the aim of boosting trade, tourism, and regional integration. However, Arévalo has said that any connection with Guatemala would have to avoid protected areas in the north of Petén department and would have to abide by strict environmental regulations in order to avoid the kind of controversies that have plagued the project in Mexico. One solution could be a potential connection that passes through Belize, although this would likely present its own issues in terms of local opposition.

Another railway connection connecting Tecún Umán in Guatemala’s San Marcos department to Mexico’s Tren Interoceánico project, via the border town of Ciudad Hidalgo in Mexico’s Chiapas state, is also under discussion. The Tren Interoceánico links Mexico’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts, running from the port of Salina Cruz in Oaxaca state to the port of Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz state.

Connecting Guatemala with this major infrastructure project “has great potential for trade but also for the wider region,” said Arévalo. This is part of ongoing discussions, with Mexico agreeing to donate 400km of rails to Guatemala in July 2024, and Guatemalan officials are carrying out feasibility studies in conjunction with the US Army Corps of Engineers.

Other commitments include plans to cooperate on ‘Polos de Desarrollo para el Bienestar’, development zones that aim to attract investment and improve productive capacity along the border between the two countries, and projects to improve connections between their electricity grids in order to boost energy security, according to a statement from the Mexican government published 15 August. “Our history has taught us that important changes are not brought about in isolation, but rather as a result of unity and cooperation,” said Sheinbaum in the statement, adding that the meeting showed Mexico and Guatemala’s commitment to work together to achieve “a more dignified, equitable and freer future.”

Later on 15 August, Arévalo and Sheinbaum met with Belize’s Prime Minister Johnny Briceño in Calakmul, Campeche state, for trilateral discussions on a potential railway connection, as well as plans for a joint protected area known as the Great Mayan Jungle Biocultural Corridor, which will cover 5.7m hectares. “We have committed to cooperating on boosting the conservation and sustainable use of the rainforest, protecting the human and cultural rights of the indigenous communities in this area, and working together on a joint response to common threats,” said Arévalo at a press conference on 19 August.

While these meetings mark a significant advance in regional cooperation, squaring a stated desire for greater conservation with efforts to boost economic development and trade will not be easy. Infrastructure projects such as new roads and railways have been found to facilitate deforestation by improving access to isolated areas, opening them up to licit and illicit economic activities such as logging and ranching. At the same time, there will be significant technical, financial and social challenges in connecting Guatemala to the Tren Maya, meaning that such a connection will likely take years to come to fruition if it is possible at all. 

Tren Interoceánico

There are also likely to be significant technical, financial and social challenges regarding linking Guatemala to Mexico’s Tren Interoceánico via Tecún Uman, but a potential route running south to Guatemala City would offer the opportunity of improving connections to global markets via Mexican ports, bringing economic benefits without as much potential for environmental degradation.