Caribbean & Central America - May 2007 (ISSN 1741-4458)

President Oscar Berger is the least popular head of state in Latin America, according to a survey carried out by the Mexican pollster Consulta Mitofsky in April. Berger's approval rating was a paltry 20%. When he was elected, on a tide of optimism, in November 2003, Berger enjoyed popularity in excess of 80%. The erosion of some of his support can be attributed to the fact that his term in office is coming to a close, but the main reason for the low figure is his failure to address the three principal concerns held by the Guatemalan public: security, unemployment and poverty. 

The public is likely to be much more sceptical of the contenders in September's presidential elections. The presidential campaign was officially declared open by the supreme electoral tribunal (TSE) on 2 May. The clear frontrunner, Alvaro Colom, of the left-of-centre Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE) has pledged to correct Berger's mistakes. Colom was narrowly defeated by Berger in the second round of the elections in 2003. His main rival this time around, Retired General Otto Pérez Molina, of the right-wing Partido Patriota (PP), is focusing his attention on improving security which, if it can be accomplished, would have the concomitant effect, he argues, of boosting employment. 

Unfazed by the relative failure of high-profile "mano dura"(firm hand) campaigns against organised crime in El Salvador and Honduras, Pérez Molina is promising to launch his own "mano dura" security initiative. His tough rhetoric and military background (he is a graduate of the School of the Americas and a former chief of military intelligence) has prompted concern among human rights groups that he will turn a process begun by President Berger - a steady militarisation of the Policí­a Nacional Civil (PNC) - into a more profound militarisation of society. 

• Organised crime
  Guatemala's main umbrella business organisation, Cacif, is expressing concern that organised crime could influence September's presidential elections. "Organised crime is trying to participate in all of the political parties; it wants candidates for the (332) mayoralties, all the way up to the presidency", the president of Cacif, Carlos Zúñiga, said. He is not the first to raise such fears, which were echoed by US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs, Christy McCampbell, who said she feared "a possible incursion of drug-traffickers in Guatemalan politics and the upcoming elections".