Caribbean & Central America - June 2007 (ISSN 1741-4458)

Menchú's main problem is that her international profile, gained through her fight for human rights and recognised with a Nobel Peace Prize, is not matched by an equally impressive domestic reputation. Firstly, she is a female indigenous candidate in a society which, despite some steady improvements, remains sexist and racist. Secondly, she has not been able to harness the full support of Guatemala's large indigenous population. She alienated some of her potential support base in late March when she snubbed the organisers of the continental summit of indigenous peoples and nationalities of Abya Yala, held in Iximché, a sacred Maya site and main city of the Kaqchikel Maya people.  

Not only did Menchú fail to make an appearance at the summit, she did not even send a message. When it was proposed by one delegate that the final summit declaration of Iximché include support for her presidential aspirations, he was shouted down. Her candidacy was the most divisive issue at the summit.

Many indigenous people accuse Menchú of embracing neoliberalism because of her decision to go into alliance with the EG and select as her running mate Luis Fernando Montenegro, a former president of Guatemala's national coffee association (ANACAFE) and a respected businessman.

Menchú argues that Montenegro embodied the social development vision that motivated her to seek the presidency. Her indigenous detractors argue that he embodies the neoliberal agenda that has failed to address the problems of Guatemalans, and especially indigenous Guatemalans, for decades. They claim that she deliberately chose not to appear at the summit in order to keep "the oligarchy" on side. Instead, the thousands of indigenous peoples from 24 countries who did attend the summit nominated Bolivia's President Evo Morales for a Nobel Peace Prize.

Indigenous division

The Iximché declaration underlined the need to "fortify the organisational processes and struggle of the Indigenous Peoples with the full participation of our women, children and young people." Indigenous communities have managed to make an impact on local politics: 119 of the 332 mayoralties are considered indigenous (although not exclusively so). They have not made an impact at a national level, however, because of divisions within the indigenous movement.  

Menchú has not managed to bridge these and, unless she manages to do so, the division will undermine her bid. It also goes a long way to explaining why she is still languishing in single figures in the polls.

Menchú has not addressed the issue of indigenous support. Instead, she is determined to galvanise the millions of Guatemalans she claims are disenchanted with the party-political system which has "deteriorated so much due to corruption and promises that are repeatedly reneged upon, that the population is completely disillusioned." She believes that it is likely that abstention could be more than 50%.

This seems incredibly high, even by Guatemala's traditionally high rates of abstention, but there is little doubt that Guatemalans are apathetic about the elections. Menchú might not have made much of an impact on the polls but other candidates have not fared much better. Even Alvaro Colom, the current frontrunner, is slipping in the polls and is now well adrift of the 50% threshold required to win in the first round of the elections.  

Colom, who is running for the centre-left Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza (UNE), is now on 25.9% support, down nearly nine percentage points since January, according to a poll by Borge & Asociados this month. Retired General Otto Pérez Molina, of the right-wing Partido Patriota, moved up slightly to 15.3% in the poll while Alejandro Giammattei, of the ruling Gran Alianza Nacional (GANA), is in single figures with Menchú.

Security

The big problem confronting all of the candidates is how to address the dreadful security situation. Pérez and Giammatei are promising to break up organised crime, reduce the number of members of the mara gangs, enlarge the Policí­a Nacional Civil (PNC) from 22,000 to 30,000 and guarantee security in order to attract investment and create employment. This is obviously easier said than done as the incumbent President, Oscar Berger, has discovered to his cost.

Colom advocates a different tack. "Guatemala is tired of 'mano dura' initiatives, of bellicose rhetoric, and actions on the margin of the law," he said. Instead, Colom is promising to improve security by providing more resources for the public prosecutor's office and the judiciary so that they can fulfil their duties and "attack the economic and social causes of crime". In a television debate with Pérez earlier this month, he said he would hold a broad social dialogue process before tackling the security situation. He said it was necessary to regain control of the state, which "is in the hands of different mafias". He spoke about revamping the PNC by bringing in better trained recruits and reducing by more than half, during his mandate, the number of murders under Berger - some 20,000. He did not provide substantial details of initiatives to achieve these goals.

• Rí­os Montt gains immunity
  Retired general and former president Efraí­n Rí­os Montt will run for a seat in the legislative assembly in elections on 9 September. The supreme electoral tribunal (TSE) registered Rí­os Montt's candidacy this month despite remonstrations from NGOs and to the consternation of the Spanish judge, Santiago Pedraz, who ordered an arrest warrant for Rí­os Montt last July for genocide, torture and state terrorism. Rí­os Montt will now be able to hide behind immunity from prosecution even though he is only a candidate.

• Telephone tapping
  The government introduced a controversial new measure to try and improve security this month. The "law against organised crime" legalises telephone tapping, in specific cases, to obtain evidence and using undercover agents to infiltrate gangs of drug-traffickers, kidnappers and extortionists. The interior minister, Adela Torrebiarte, said the police and the attorney general's office would need to seek permission for telephone tapping from a judge. Human rights groups said the law was open to abuse and could lead to spying. They want clear legal parameters to be put in place.