Caribbean & Central America - November 2025

Amid Haiti’s continuing political and security crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued what it calls an “encouraging” review of its staff-monitored programme (SMP) conducted with the country’s authorities.

SMPs are informal agreements between the IMF and member governments to monitor economic performance and “build a track record of policy implementation” that could eventually pave the way for a more formal IMF programme and funding. The latest review was conducted in October as a “virtual mission”. It acknowledges that things are bad. In its words “economic conditions in Haiti remain fragile amid persistent domestic and external shocks and rising uncertainty”. It notes the economy is now contracting for the seventh consecutive year. Inflation is high by Caribbean standards, at 32%. The banking system is fragile with non-performing loans at 13%.

And yet there are what could be called bright spots in the gloom. Remittances sent home by expatriate Haitian workers have been increasing because of the security crisis and worries over US President Donald Trump’s migration policies. Because of these inflows, Haiti can expect a “moderate surplus” on the current account this year. The exchange rate has been stable. Gross international reserves are “adequate” at US$3.1bn (equivalent to seven months of imports). Although “constrained” by security challenges and limited policy space, the fiscal position this year is “broadly balanced”. Monetary financing of the fiscal deficit has been kept at zero. Public debt as a proportion of GDP is only 12.4%, the lowest ratio in Latin America and the Caribbean. The review notes that, looking ahead, there are major downside risks, including an intensification of gang warfare, and disruption from abrupt changes in migration and trade policies. However, it also suggests that if the political crisis is stabilised there may be some foundations for recovery and economic reform.