Caribbean & Central America - December 2025

Honduran producers exported coffee worth US$17.8m in October, 270.8% higher than in the same period last year.

The spike in the value of coffee exports is due to both more volume and higher prices on the global market, according to the national coffee institute (Ihcafe). Farmers exported 51,183 quintales (46kg bags) of coffee this October, a 126.7% increase from the 22,580 quintales exported in the same period last year, while the average price per quintal was US$348.26, a 63.5% increase from the figure of US$212.97 recorded last year. The US was the biggest export market, receiving 40.5% of total exports, followed by France (18.7%) and Germany (14.9%). 

Meanwhile in a move welcomed by the Honduran coffee exporters’ association (Adecafeh), on 26 November the European Union (EU) delayed for another year regulations which will add to pressure on the sector – namely the bloc’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), which imposes traceability requirements for agricultural imports in a bid to reduce deforestation. Complying with these requirements will be onerous for small Honduran coffee producers, who make up more than 90% of the total number of producers in the sector. Given the importance of coffee to the Honduran economy, with the sector contributing more than 5% of national GDP, according to Ihcafe, the EUDR poses serious risks to economic growth. 

According to recent research from UK-based research and policy group, the Centre for Economic Transition Expertise (CETEx), “the overall risks of exclusion for Honduran producers remain extremely high because of the legality and traceability requirements of the EUDR, putting approximately 20% of the country’s exports and 7% of its foreign exchange at risk.” As things now stand, EUDR will come into force for large- and medium-sized companies from 30 December 2026, with micro and small enterprises to follow on 30 December 2017.

OECD warns on impact of US tariffs

In a 2 December report on Costa Rica, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects Costa Rica’s GDP growth to remain “broadly stable,” easing from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027. It notes that the contribution of external demand is expected to gradually weaken due to increased tariffs on Costa Rican exports to the US, the country’s main trading partner. In July 2025, the tariff applied to Costa Rica’s goods exports to the US rose to 15%. The US accounts for around 16.2% of Costa Rica’s total exports and 47% of goods exports according to OECD. On 14 November however the US removed reciprocal tariffs on several Costa Rican agricultural exports, in line with an executive order from President Donald Trump targeting goods that the US does not produce domestically in sufficient quantities.