Weekly Report - 15 January 2026 (WR-26-02)

Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum has spoken on the phone with her US counterpart Donald Trump in a bid to ease tensions that have been rising ever since the US military incursion in Venezuela on 3 January. Sheinbaum has been walking a fine line since then, rejecting the US military intervention while avoiding evoking the ire of Washington. The situation has become all the more sensitive as Trump has escalated threats of military action against Mexican cartels, with events in Caracas making these harder to dismiss as bluster. Sheinbaum’s decision to approach Trump directly reflects her preference for negotiation and dialogue over mediated exchanges but, while the situation remains tempered for now, the threat of military action looms large and Sheinbaum still needs to tread carefully.