Caribbean & Central America - January 2026

On 27 November, the electors of St Vincent and the Grenadines (SVG) finally turned away from Ralph Gonsalves, long-time leader of the Unity Labour Party (ULP) and prime minister for 24 years. In a near clean sweep, the New Democratic Party (NDP) under leader Godwin Friday took power with 14 of the 15 seats in parliament. Of the ULP candidates, only Gonsalves himself survived the rout.

Interestingly, when the ULP came to power in 2001 that, too, was after a lengthy period of one-party dominance – the NDP’s 17-year ascendancy under Prime Minister James Mitchell. Nor is a near wipeout of the opposition unique in SVG politics. In 1989, the NDP won all 15 seats in parliament, up from its initial 10-3 seat victory in 1984. This narrowed to 12-3 in 1994 and then an even closer 8-7 in 1998. Gonsalves won his first term in 2001 with a 12-3 ULP victory, which was repeated in 2005, but after that the margin narrowed, with the ULP winning by 8-7 in 2010 and again in 2015, and by 9-6 in 2020.

On the one score that, arguably, matters most, namely GDP per capita, Gonsalves’ record over both the past 24 years, including since the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic struck in 2020, compares favourably with all his regional Anglophone peers except for the special case of Guyana where the discovery of oil has led to an unrivalled surge in national wealth. As the tables below show, SVG still ranks towards the bottom end of the scale on GDP per capita in the Anglophone Caribbean, in 10^th position out of 12, but its advance has been better than all but Guyana, with GDP per capita increasing by 183% since 2001 (when Gonsalves came to power) and by 32% since 2019, the last year before the pandemic-induced recession. The next best performer since 2001 has been Antigua & Barbuda (104%) and, since 2019, Jamaica on 29%. However, SVG’s performance on debt has been less impressive. It ranked six out of 12 Anglophone Caribbean countries in 2001, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 53%. In 2024, it had slipped to 10^th place, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 93%.

Allegations of corruption played a part in the election, and after 24 years in power a perception of self-enrichment by the governing elite (and ruling family in particular) is perhaps inevitable. However, on Transparency International’s corruption perceptions index (CPI), the Gonsalves years do not score too badly. Out of the eight Anglophone Caribbean countries included in the index in 2012, the earliest year during which these countries were assessed, SVG ranked as the 4^th least corrupt with a score of 62 out of 100 (where 100 equals totally clean and zero equals totally corrupt). In 2024, SVG scored 63, taking it to 3^rd place behind only The Bahamas (65) and Barbados (68). Both of those countries, however, had regressed (from respective scores of 71 and 76 in 2012) whereas SVG had improved during this time, if only marginally.

Nevertheless, damaging allegations accompanied the run-up to the election, with commentaries arguing that government ministers had been beneficiaries of government-awarded contracts. There were also reports about the prime minister’s wife, Eloise, unfairly gaining lucrative contracts to provide meals to workers and volunteers in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, and about luxury apartments bought by the prime minister’s family in Trinidad.

Rising crime has also been a major concern, and a key factor in the election. As measured by murders per 100,000 inhabitants, SVG has fallen from 6^th place in 2001 (with 11 murders per 100,000 inhabitants) to 11^th out of 12 in 2024 (with 54). No other country in the region has fallen so many places, and only St Kitts & Nevis recorded a higher murder rate (60) in 2024 than SVG.

GDP per capita (current US$)

Source: World Bank

Debt-to-GDP ratio

Source: IMF

Murders per 100,000

Sources: World Bank, Insight Crime, and press reports

Corruption perceptions index (0=totally corrupt; 100=totally clean)

Source: Transparency International

The central promise of the NDP election campaign was “putting more money in your pocket” with a cut in the VAT rate from 16% to 13%. There is also a promise to introduce VAT-free shopping days throughout the year, including in August before the return to school and in December in the run-up to Christmas, in order “to turbocharge our small businesses”. Public servants were promised a year-end bonus for “serving the people of this country”.

Other pro-business promises include the establishment of a National Innovation Hub “to promote entrepreneurship and new business”; a Diaspora Investment Programme “to attract a greater number of investments from our diaspora”; a National Investment Bureau to provide “a one-stop-shop for all businesses, international and local, that want insight into how to develop and expand their businesses”; and a National Development Bank to “provide low interest loans to help small businesses grow”. The NDP manifesto identifies four key pillars of the economy for special focus: Agriculture, tourism, the blue economy, and the new economy.

On health, there was a promise to introduce a National Health Insurance scheme and to ensure that every constituency has at least one clinic. There will be new facilities for older people to “ensure they have a good quality of life”. On crime, the key promise was to appoint a stand-alone National Security Minister. There will be more emergency shelters for women, and a commitment to build a National Forensics Laboratory “to help solve more crimes”.

On foreign policy, a key move has been to confirm that there will be no immediate switch in allegiance from Taiwan to mainland China, something that the new prime minister had suggested in the past might happen should he gain power. In 2016, the NDP’s former president Arnhim Eustace, who served as former prime minister (2000-2001) said that if elected to government, the NDP would adopt a ‘One China Policy’ and cut ties with Taiwan, and this position was endorsed in 2018 by Godwin Friday.

Another important move has been to confirm that SVG will launch a Citizenship by Investment (CBI) programme in 2026 despite increased opposition to such programmes from the US and European Union. The reason given by the prime minister for pressing ahead with the initiative is the level of public debt. Speaking during Christmas week, the prime minister said: “We can’t borrow much more. CBI has been a part of our party’s platform for 10 to 15 years. An economic citizenship programme previously existed when the NDP was in government years ago.” Asked about US and EU opposition to CBI programmes, Friday said: “I don’t believe these developments are a death knell for such programmes, the demand remains high among high-net-worth people whose interests often gain priority in global affairs.”

Visa issues for CBI countries

On 19 December, the European Commission published its 8^th Report under the Visa Suspension Mechanism. Inter alia, the report says: “The operation of [CBI] programmes constitutes, in itself, a ground for suspending the visa-free status of third countries.”

In particular, the report says that the five Caribbean countries with CBI programmes – Antigua & Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St Kitts & Nevis, and St Lucia – pose a “much greater” challenge that countries within the EU’s immediate neighbourhood because of the scale of their programmes. Between them, the five countries have issued over 100,000 passports through their CBI programmes, with 13,113 applications in 2023 and 10,573 in 2024. The Commission says that security vetting procedures are inadequate and rejection rates are “very low”. For instance, according to the Commission, in 2024 Antigua & Barbuda rejected only 1.7% of applications, Saint Lucia 5.3%, and Dominica 6.5%. 

Gonsalves

Gonsalves, who turns 80 this year, led St Vincent & The Grenadines into the radical Alianza Bolivariana para los Pueblos de Nuestra América (Alba) bloc, created in 2004 by Venezuela’s then-president Hugo Chávez (1999-2013), who he described as a “very close friend and comrade”. Gonsalves also forged deeper ties with Venezuela’s ideological allies Cuba and Iran.

Antigua and Dominica

The US has suspended visa access for visitors from Antigua and Dominica because of doubts over their due diligence processes on CBI applicants.