Caribbean & Central America - January 2026

Still one of the largest economies in the Caribbean, Haiti’s economic performance in 2025 was poor, not to say terrible. But the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes an economic recovery could be in the making according to a 26 November 2025 report.

The fragile security situation, with violent gangs flouting government authority, continued to be the main negative factor in the country in 2025. A report from Haiti’s central bank (BCH) covering the July-September quarter said socio-political instability hampered economic activity, increasing price pressures and food insecurity.

ICAE-Haiti, the index of economic activity, dropped by 2.4% in the first nine months of fiscal year 2024-2025 (the nine months to end-June). Haitian GDP has fallen in each of the last seven years. There are some 1.4m internally displaced persons and 5.7m facing food insecurity (out of a total population of 11.9m). Annual inflation remained high at 32% in FY2025 according to the IMF report.

The expiry of the US Temporary Protected Status (TPS) visa programme this year could force over 300,000 Haitians currently in the US to leave, which would on the medium term reduce remittances sent back home to Haiti. The destructive impact of Hurricane Melissa (which hit northern Haiti last October) is also among other negatives for growth.

But there are some positives in play. Last November the IMF said Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP) was being extended by a further nine months to September 2026, giving more time for economic stabilisation, and related measures such as improved governance, anti-corruption measures, and steps to strengthen the social safety net. There have been strong albeit short-term remittance inflows, boosting international reserves to almost US$1.5bn by July 2025. The government has met its agreed fiscal and monetary targets. Initiatives to reduce criminal violence (such as the Gang Suppression Force, which was approved by the United Nations Security Council in October 2025) may also begin to have an effect this year.

The IMF is also supporting tax and budget reform designed to improve policy credibility. Despite the Donald Trump’s administration’s reduction of US economic aid, the IMF is calling for increased international financial support, and the World Bank and the European Union (EU) have made additional contributions. Yet even those who are optimistic about a potential recovery admit that the improvements to date are fragile and uneven.