Caribbean & Central America - January 2026

According to the United Nations (UN)’ Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (Eclac), growth in the Caribbean sub region will be muted this year.

In its most recent (16 December) update, Eclac expects GDP growth in the Caribbean to be only 1.8% in 2026, down from an estimated 1.9% in 2025 (for purposes of comparison the number excludes oil-boom Guyana which is expected to grow by over 20%). The sub-region will be affected by softer tourism demand, high import costs, volatility in the construction sector and recurring climate shocks.

Among the worst performing economies in the Caribbean are Cuba and Haiti, both currently in crisis mode, marked by an energy collapse in Cuba, violent gangs in Haiti, and extreme political uncertainty in both. Eclac expects Cuba’s GDP to have fallen by 1.5% in 2025 and to be at a standstill this year (+0.1%). Haiti’s GDP is expected to have contracted by 2.3% in 2025 and to fall again this year by 1.2%. Among those at the other end of the spectrum is the Dominican Republic which has a stable democracy, a diversified economy, and market-friendly policies. An Article IV consultation with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last November concluded that the Dominican Republic’s growth would pick up this year based on “strong economic fundamentals…and policy space to respond should risks materialise”. Eclac expects growth of 2.9% last year rising to 3.6% in 2026.

Other Caribbean countries

Guyana’s oil boom put the country on course for a whopping 24% GDP growth this year. Suriname, where oil investment is beginning to pick up pace, will grow by 3.4% this year. Among other important island economies are Trinidad and Tobago (+ 0.9% growth in 2026), Jamaica (+ 1.4%), and Barbados (+2.1%) .