Mexico - January 2026

The US is continuing to secure guilty pleas from high-profile members of the Cártel de Sinaloa. On 1 December Joaquín Guzmán López, one of the leaders of the cartel’s Los Chapitos faction which is led by the sons of the imprisoned former drug kingpin Joaquín ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán Loera, pleaded guilty to charges of drug trafficking and engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise. His plea came after that of his brother and fellow Los Chapitos leader, Ovidio Guzmán López, in July and that of Ismael ‘El Mayo’ Zambada [SSR-25-10], who co-founded the cartel along with El Chapo, in August. The most explosive element of the plea concerned Zambada, with Guzmán admitting to having coordinated his kidnapping and arrest. This threatens to further exacerbate the deadly conflict in Sinaloa between members of Los Chapitos and those loyal to Zambada, known as La Mayiza or Los Mayos.

Guzmán pleaded guilty to one count of drug conspiracy and one count of engaging in a continuing criminal enterprise. The plea agreement describes him as “a logistical coordinator” who oversaw drug trafficking to the US, importation of drugs and precursor chemicals into Mexico, and the laundering of drug money. He is also accused of overseeing the manufacturing and distribution of fentanyl, the synthetic opioid that is driving overdose deaths in the US and which is a priority of US President Donald Trump’s campaign against drug cartels. The convictions carry a mandatory minimum penalty of 10 years in prison and a maximum penalty of life in prison.

In reaching a plea deal, Guzmán follows in the footsteps of his brother, Ovidio, who pleaded guilty to two counts of drug distribution and two counts of participating in a criminal enterprise in July. The pair are accused of leading Los Chapitos along with two other brothers, Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar, who remain at large albeit under much pressure in Mexico. In pleading guilty and cooperating with US prosecutors, Guzmán is ensuring that his case will not go to trial, where the inner workings of Los Chapitos and organised crime in Mexico more widely could have been exposed.

The main point of interest in Guzmán’s guilty plea was the confirmation of his betrayal of Zambada, which corroborated accusations made in a letter written by Zambada in August 2024 [SSR-24-09]. In the plea agreement, Guzmán said that he lured Zambada to a meeting at a ranch on the outskirts of Sinaloa state capital Culiacán on 25 July 2024. When Zambada arrived, Guzmán asked him to come into a room alone with him, where armed men entered through floor-to-ceiling windows and handcuffed Zambada. He was then transported to an airstrip and loaded onto a plane, which Guzmán also boarded, and which took them to the US where they were both arrested. Although the plea agreement does not name Zambada, the details closely match the accusations made in his letter.

This appears to shut the door on speculation as to how the arrests came about. At the time, the arrests had caused friction between the US and Mexico, with former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024) questioning whether the US government had prior knowledge of or a role in the operation. Washington denied involvement. However, it seems unlikely that US authorities were unaware of the plot given Ovidio was negotiating with federal prosecutors at the time and US agents were on hand to arrest Guzmán and Zambada as soon as they landed in the US. While a sentencing date has yet to be set for Guzmán and his brother, Zambada is due to be sentenced in April.

Sinaloa violence

Murder rates in Sinaloa spiked following the arrests of Guzmán and Zambada, with cartel infighting beginning in September 2024. According to Mexico’s national executive public security secretariat (SESNSP), there were 1,432 murders in Sinaloa between January and October 2025, up 116% on the 663 recorded in the same period of last year. While monthly murder numbers have reduced somewhat from the high of 207 seen in June this year, they remain far above those registered prior to September 2024.