Brazil & Southern Cone - January 2026

Public concerns over issues such as crime and migration dominated debates during Chile’s presidential race [SSR-25-10]. This boosted the campaign of José Antonio Kast, who ultimately won the presidency for the far-right Partido Republicano (PR) in the run-off vote on 14 December. Kast made promises throughout his campaign to enact hardline security measures including mass deportations and the construction of new prisons. However, during his victory speech, his tone struck a somewhat less polarising note. Instead, Kast emphasised the need for unity and respect for institutions, suggesting a willingness to work with other political parties to pass reforms to further his security agenda.

Although Kast finished behind the candidate of the left-of-centre governing coalition, Jeannette Jara (Partido Comunista de Chile, PCCh), in the first-round vote in mid-November, he secured a comfortable victory against her in the second round, with around 58.2% of voters choosing Kast and 41.8% voting for Jara. An ultra-conservative Catholic, Kast was more measured and moderate in tone during this presidential bid compared with his failed attempts to win the presidency in 2017 and 2021, which likely played a part in his victory. Nevertheless, he continued to employ hardline rhetoric in relation to security, with promises to clamp down on illegal migration, which he frequently described as a key factor driving up crime rates, among his core campaign pledges.

However, during his victory speech, Kast employed more moderate rhetoric. While repeating his calls to deport illegal migrants, he later went on to describe Chile as a “welcoming country”, saying that: “We want to receive them, but in compliance with the law.” He also highlighted that migrants play a part in improving the country, especially in the health sector, and he expressed thanks to all the legal migrants who obey the law and fulfil their responsibility to Chile.

When outlining his ambitions to implement security reforms, Kast made an appeal to unity across the political spectrum, saying that “if we are to combat organised crime, we need you as well… if we are going to recover our prisons, we will need you, those of the opposition”. He also sought to manage expectations by insisting that there are no quick fixes or “magical solutions” for tackling crime. Kast went on to list other policy areas such as health and education in which “we will need [the opposition]”.

Indeed, the ability of the incoming Kast government to pass security-related, or any other, reforms will involve working with more moderate conservative parties in congress. In Chile’s congressional elections on 16 November, the same day as the first round of the presidential vote, the far-right electoral alliance known as Cambio por Chile, which is led by the PR, secured 42 seats in the 155-member lower chamber, while Unidad por Chile, the left-wing coalition that backed Jara’s candidacy, won 61 seats in the lower house. Therefore, to pass its reforms, the incoming Kast government will likely need support from the traditional right-of-centre Chile Grande y Unido coalition of Chile Vamos and Demócratas y Amarillos, which won 34 seats in the lower house, as well as other potential allies. Meanwhile, the 50-member senate is evenly split between right-wing and left-wing blocs, with centre-right and far-right parties holding 25 seats in total. This reliance on opposition support in congress may lead Kast to invite allies from more centrist or centre-right parties to serve in his government when he takes office in March.

The need for the support of other right-wing parties was also seen during the presidential campaign. Receiving only 23.9% of the vote share in the first round, behind Jara on 26.9%, Kast benefitted from endorsements from other right-wing candidates ahead of the second round, such as the ultra-right Johannes Kaiser, who won 13.9% of the first-round vote, and the more moderate Evelyn Matthei, who won 12.5%. However, the third-place candidate, populist outsider Franco Parisi, who obtained 19.7% of the vote share, refused to endorse Kast or Jara. Although broadly right-wing in his views, having made similar anti-migrant statements to Kast during the election campaign, Parisi has frequently described himself as neither belonging to the left nor right. The support of Parisi’s Partido de la Gente (PDG) could yet prove decisive in the lower chamber, with the party now holding 14 seats.

Security

The narrative that migration fuels crime in Chile played a large part in Kast’s presidential campaign, as well as those of other right-wing candidates. Jara was frequently pressured during campaign debates about the perceived failure of the left-of-centre government led by President Gabriel Boric to address public concerns over insecurity, with right-wing candidates reiterating their arguments that the left is soft on crime and Chile needs more ‘mano dura’ (iron fist) approaches that involve increased arrests and deportations and a militarisation of the border to combat transnational criminal groups such as the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua. During the campaign, Jara was forced to address these issues and also offer proposals to improve border security and build more prisons.

Data often cited by politicians during the campaign highlighted that there are currently over 300,000 irregular migrants in Chile. While only a small minority of these migrants will have ties to organised crime, Kast and other right-wing politicians have capitalised on rising levels of insecurity perception in Chile to push hardline migration policies, including measures inspired by El Salvador and the US involving mass incarceration and deportations.

There is little doubt that Kast’s focus on security and migration played a large part in his electoral victory. According to a poll carried out by Cadem from 17-19 December, 37% of survey respondents said that crime was the defining issue of the election and 21% ranked immigration as the most relevant topic. When asked why they thought Kast won the election, survey respondents said that the top reason was that people liked the president-elect’s proposals on security, immigration, and the economy, rather than a rejection of Jara and the incumbent Boric administration. Around 31% of respondents listed Kast’s focus on these hot-button issues as the top factor, while only 16% highlighted rejection of Jara.

Insecurity perception

According to data released by the national statistics institute (INE) in July 2025, based on a survey carried out in late 2024, 87.7% of respondents said they perceived a rise in criminality at the national level. This marks a slight increase compared to the 87.5% of respondents in 2023 who said that they perceived a rise in criminality. However, the survey also showed that 50.8% of respondents in 2024 perceived a rise in criminality in their local area, down from 54.6% in 2023. When asked about how they feel about walking home at night, 67.9% of respondents in 2024 said they felt unsafe walking around in their neighbourhood after dark, which is down from 70.1% in 2023.

These figures indicate an uptick in public concern over security at a national level, but a decrease in concerns around security at a local level. This suggests that perceptions are being influenced by media coverage and political debates in recent years that have shone a spotlight on the dynamics of transnational organised crime involving high-profile groups such as Tren de Aragua in Chile, despite people feeling marginally safer in their day-to-day lives. Therefore, the success of Kast’s security strategy will also hinge on his ability to control the narrative around these issues, as well as concrete results.

A polarised race

According to a survey by national pollster Cadem conducted on 11 December, just days before the run-off vote, around 20% of survey respondents said they planned to spoil their ballots, or that they had not yet decided on a candidate. This likely points to the polarisation of the race, with centrist voters split between voting for the far-right Kast or leftist Jara, who only renounced her membership of the radical left-wing Partido Comunista de Chile (PCCh) weeks before the first-round vote.

Robberies

While organised crime remains a major concern, INE data released in July showed that the most common crimes experienced or witnessed by survey respondents were not gang shootouts but common robberies.