Andean Group - January 2026

We begin this January 2026 edition of the Latin American Regional Report: Andean Group with two articles looking at the fallout of the US military raid on Venezuela to arrest former president Nicolás Maduro (2013-2026) and his wife on drug and weapons charges. Few Venezuelans will miss Maduro, who after a narrow victory in the 2013 election clung to power through ever more repressive and dictatorial means. It remains unclear, however, whether his fall will result in the return of democracy. The country is now being ruled by Maduro’s former vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, who has been warned by Washington to comply with US demands or face further military action.

These US demands are focused primarily on the country’s oil sector – which, as the second article explores, is suffering the consequences of years of mismanagement and neglect. Venezuela remains under a US blockade which is preventing it from exporting its sanctioned crude to the country’s main export market, China. The blockade has forced state oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) to suspend production at some key wells, with potentially long-term impacts.

We then turn our attention to Ecuador, where President Daniel Noboa suffered a major defeat in a 16 November referendum that included a proposal to allow the return of foreign military bases. Noboa had been confident of victory – so confident, in fact, that he invited US Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem to tour two prospective sites for US troops in the run-up to the vote. Noboa was left with egg on his face after voters rejected the proposal by 60.82%-39.18%. Despite this setback, the arrival of US troops in December for temporary activities within Ecuador suggests that the two governments are finding a way to work around the referendum defeat.

The final two articles focus on Bolivia. In the first of these, we discuss the cancellation of fuel subsidies by new President Rodrigo Paz – a bold move which sparked a month of protests by trade unions. Paz managed to prevent the country from being ground to a halt, as it was during recent protest campaigns, by negotiating separately with various unions to lessen the impact of the protests. Demonstrators stood down in early January after the government reached an agreement in which the subsidy cancellation will remain in force, but other elements of its reform agenda will be rowed back.

We wrap up this issue with a look at Paz’s stance on coca. This is firmer than that of his left-wing predecessor, Luis Arce (2020-2025), who allowed coca harvests to swell far beyond the size permitted for traditional use.