Caribbean & Central America - February 2026

Nasry Asfura of the right-wing Partido Nacional (PN) has been sworn in as Honduras’ new president following an electoral process mired in controversy. He now has the task of dealing with complex issues around security and international relations, as the first piece in this February 2026 edition of the Latin American Regional Report: Caribbean & Central America explores.

Still focusing on Honduras, we then consider Asfura’s economic plan in greater depth, before turning to Costa Rica, where outgoing President Rodrigo Chaves leaves a mixed record on the economy for his hand-picked successor Laura Fernández who won the 1 February election. A second piece on Costa Rica looks at the security challenge awaiting the new Fernández government which takes office in May.

The final focus piece on Central America ends in Guatemala where, days after claiming in a state of the nation address that his administration had made significant progress in improving public security, President Bernardo Arévalo was forced to declare a national state of siege over a wave of violence linked to gang activity.

Turning to the Caribbean we begin with Cuba which faces multiple crises: oil imports have halted, following the US’ removal of Venezuela’s former president Nicolás Maduro (2013-2026) and subsequent threat of tariffs on other oil suppliers; the power grid only operates at half its capacity; and there are food and foreign currency shortages. These are all intensely pressing but short-term problems; here we look at some of the longer term, structural issues that lie behind them. The next piece considers the deepening humanitarian crisis in Cuba – as already indicated in a report released in July 2024 by Spain-based NGO Observatorio Cubano de Derechos Humanos (OCDH).

We then turn to Jamaica, for which in mid-January the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced it had approved a disbursement of US$415m “to address the impact of Hurricane Melissa” which is estimated by the World Bank to have caused US$8.75bn of direct damage to infrastructure and to residential, non-residential, and agricultural assets.

The final focus piece then looks at how Caribbean countries have been grappling with the challenge of how to deal with US President Donald Trump’s administration. The US capture of Maduro in particular has exacerbated the pre-existing difficulties that had been developing over the Trump administration’s tough policies on immigration and drug trafficking.