Caribbean & Central America - February 2026

Just days after claiming in a state of the nation address that his administration had made significant progress in improving public security, Guatemala’s left-of-centre reformist President Bernardo Arévalo was forced to declare a national state of siege over a wave of violence linked to gang activity. The episode would appear to provide a clear indication that insecurity remains a major problem in Guatemala.

In his state of the nation address to the national congress on 14 January, marking the start of his third year in office, President Arévalo claimed progress had been made in improving public security and that the initiatives implemented by his government were starting to deliver results. In particular, he said that the strategy of deploying joint national police (PNC) and army patrols to reinforce security and combat criminality had led to a fall in homicides in the second half of 2025, although he did not provide absolute figures. He added that the security forces had also dismantled 148 criminal structures and captured 2,800 criminals in 2025, up 92% on 2024. While admitting that more needed to be done to strengthen public security, he insisted that his government was on the right path to achieve this.

Days later however, over the 17-18 January weekend, a wave of armed attacks targeting the PNC across Guatemala City left ten PNC officers dead. The attacks took place amid riots at various prisons by incarcerated gang members reportedly unhappy with their treatment, and follow riots in prisons and a high-profile jail break last year which ultimately resulted in the replacement of the country’s security minister [SSR-25-12]. Government officials said the latest violence was aimed at pressuring authorities into accepting gangs’ demands for their jailed members to get certain privileges. In particular, this included demands for Aldo ‘El Lobo’ Duppie Ochoa, a leader of the Barrio 18 (M-18) gang, who is being held in maximum security prison Renovación I, in Escuintla department, to be transferred to a different prison with better conditions.

• Prison riots

Prison riots have occurred on various occasions since 31 July 2025 after the Arévalo government ordered incarcerated leaders of Barrio 18 (M-18) and Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13), the country’s two main gangs, to be transferred to other prison facilities to isolate them from their subordinates. During the latest riots, which took place over the 17-18 January weekend in three prisons, including maximum security prisons Fraijanes II in Guatemala City, and Renovación I, in Escuintla department, 45 prison officials and a psychologist were taken hostage by inmates who have since released them.

President Arévalo responded to the attacks by declaring a 30-day state of siege, during which some civil liberties are suspended, and the authorities have the power to detain any individual without requiring a judicial warrant, inter alia.  Announcing the measure in a nationally televised address, Arévalo claimed the bout of violence was a sign that the public security initiatives implemented by his government were being “successful,” leading the gangs to take “desperate” actions to try to force it to change course. However, he emphasised that his administration would not be intimidated nor forced to change its course by criminals, and rejected the possibility of his government negotiating with the gangs to stop the violence.

Arévalo, who won the 2023 election by a landslide with the pledge to take on the ‘pacto de corruptos’ network of institutional corruption, has also linked the violence to efforts to overhaul key institutions this year, including the attorney general’s office, the electoral court (TSE), the constitutional court (CC), and the comptroller general’s office (CGC) [SSR-26-01]. On 19 January, the day after he declared the state of siege, he was cited by state news agency Agencia Guatemalteca de Noticias (AGN) as saying that “criminal political mafias” were behind the attacks, amid efforts to “resist and seek to instil terror because they know that this year Guatemala will recover its justice system”. He also accused the attorney general’s office and its head, María Consuelo Porras, who has been blacklisted by the foreign community and is aligned with the ‘pacto’, of protecting the gangs, after prosecutors failed to charge individuals with crimes sufficiently serious for them to face justice under new anti-gang legislation which was passed last year in response to earlier prison riots.