Mexico - February 2026

This February edition of the Latin American Regional Report: Mexico begins by examining the pressure that President Claudia Sheinbaum is facing from the US to up cooperation in the fight against drug cartels. Efforts so far to combat cartels may not prove enough to satiate US President Donald Trump, with speculation that Sheinbaum may have to roll back somewhat on her defence of Mexican sovereignty and allow the US military into the country to coordinate with Mexican forces in some capacity, despite her protestations to the contrary.

An accident on the interoceanic railway on 28 December that killed at least 14 people is the focus of the next article. While the federal attorney general’s office (FGR) announced on 27 January that the accident was caused by excessive speed, rather than any structural, operational, or mechanical flaws, it has nevertheless raised scrutiny on the health and safety standards of new passenger rail services in Mexico, as well as potential irregularities surrounding their construction.

After, we look at the increasing use of drones by drug cartels, with recent developments reflecting how this is rapidly moving up the security agenda on both sides of the border.

The following piece concerns Mexico’s “record” tax take in 2025, which was up by 4.8% from the previous year to M$6.05tn (US$352.96bn). Even though taxes for 2025 exceeded projections, Mexico’s finance ministry (SHCP) is forecasting a still larger tax take of M$6.45tn in 2026, potentially strengthening the government’s ability to achieve its goal of maintaining massive social spending and infrastructure commitments without implementing a politically damaging formal tax reform.

We then turn to the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), with formal discussions kicking off at a meeting between Mexico’s Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard, US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in Washington on 28 January.

The final piece in this issue looks at how Mexican magnate Carlos Slim’s Grupo Carso conglomerate has continued a recent run of investments in the country’s energy sector. In February the conglomerate signed another contract with state-run oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), while in January it agreed to acquire Fieldwood Mexico, the local subsidiary of Russian oil firm Lukoil. This all comes as Slim looks to take advantage of a new appetite for private investment in strategic projects.