Mexico - February 2026

Mexico hauled in “record” taxes in 2025, up by 4.8% from the previous year to M$6.05tn (US$352.96bn) “without increasing taxes, just by continuing to work against tax evasion”, according to President Claudia Sheinbaum. Even though taxes for 2025 exceeded projections, Mexico’s finance ministry (SHCP) is forecasting a still larger tax take of M$6.45tn in 2026, potentially strengthening the government’s ability to achieve its goal of maintaining massive social spending and infrastructure commitments without implementing a politically damaging formal tax reform.

With the lowest tax-to-GDP ratio in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and a budget deficit that reached nearly 6% of GDP in 2024 – the highest in decades – greater tax receipts represent an important opportunity to bolster Mexico’s economic stability by reducing the deficit, as well as being an important indicator of the overall health of Mexico’s economy. 

Sheinbaum promised that the taxes would be reinvested in the country. “The additional revenue that we received for all Mexicans…will mainly be awarded to wellbeing programmes, public works, health, and education,” she said. Pledging to continue improving Mexico’s fiscal policy by tackling loopholes and corruption, Sheinbaum highlighted that her government would prioritise tackling ‘factureras’ (shell companies that provide fraudulent invoices and avoid taxes) and further improving border and customs control. 

Since raising VAT or income tax rates could undermine support for the ruling leftist Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena), Sheinbaum’s tax strategy rests on making collection more efficient. The government is focusing on measures that include AI-driven audits to identify discrepancies in electronic invoicing in real-time; cracking down on customs duties by closing loopholes that allow small Chinese e-commerce shipments to dodge payments; and widening the tax base by formalising the informal sector, which accounts for about half of the workforce. Last year the government also introduced a series of ‘sin’ taxes targeting fizzy drinks, violent video games, cigarettes, and gambling. 

If efficiency gains fail to materialise, the government will be forced to choose between further austerity, likely stifling growth, or increased borrowing, potentially undermining Mexico’s investment-grade credit rating. In addition, successive governments have preferred to dodge tackling one of the biggest drags on tax revenues: the debt-laden state oil giant Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), whose tax bill is lower than it could be so that its finances stay afloat. But the signs so far are positive. The announcement of the record tax take for 2025 followed a 16% annual rise in foreign trade tax collection through customs last year, which represents 27.1% of net tax revenues, according to Mexico’s federal tax authority (SAT). 

Furthermore, Grupo Salinas, the conglomerate owned by magnate Ricardo Salinas Pliego, is due to make a significant M$32.13bn payment to the tax authorities. The agreement follows a long tax dispute with Salinas, who has accused Sheinbaum’s government of “systematic harassment” and “political persecution”. In a statement confirming the payment, Grupo Salinas reiterated that both the company and Salinas himself “have always complied with tax payments”, adding that in the last 20 years, the conglomerate’s businesses had paid more than M$300bn in taxes. It said it was making the payment “not because we accept that it is fair, but because we seek to close this chapter and put an end to this systematic campaign against us”.