Mexico - March 2026

For decades, successive Mexican presidents have worked to maintain the country’s historic ties with Cuba while also keeping on the good side of Washington. This dichotomy has perhaps never been as difficult to maintain as now. With US President Donald Trump having ramped up the pressure on Cuba’s Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) government, President Claudia Sheinbaum sees herself in the precarious position of wanting to appease the pro-Cuban base of her ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) and help Cuba when it needs it most, while maintaining a good relationship with the Trump administration, especially given the upcoming renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Having received plaudits for her careful balancing of Trump’s demands and Mexico’s interests so far, Sheinbaum is facing her greatest challenge yet.

A long history

Ties between Mexico and Cuba go back for years. The 19^th century saw waves of migration between the two countries, with migration from Cuba to Mexico peaking again in the middle of the 20^th century, during the Fulgencio Batista dictatorship (1952-1959). It was during this time that Argentine revolutionary Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara met future Cuban leaders Fidel (1959-2008) and Raúl Castro (2008-2018) in Mexico City (CDMX) and they began planning what would become the Cuban Revolution. Mexico retained relations with Cuba after Batista was toppled in 1959, while many other countries in the region bowed to US pressure to cut ties.

This continued until the end of the period of one-party rule in Mexico by the centrist Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) in 2000. Relations soured somewhat under former president Vicente Fox (2000-2006) of the right-wing Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), who withdrew Mexico’s ambassador to Cuba and expelled Cuban diplomatic staff from CDMX in 2004 amid efforts to promote a human rights agenda for Cuba and difficulties managing the US relationship. Fox’s successor, Felipe Calderón (2006-2012), also of the PAN, worked to restore relations with Cuba, helped by the fact his term coincided with the Barack Obama (2009-2017) administration, which had begun a policy of rapprochement with Havana.

Trump’s first term in office (2017-2021) did not see tensions rise over Mexico’s relationship with Cuba, either under former presidents Enrique Peña Nieto (2012-2018, PRI), or Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2018-2024, Morena). However, López Obrador’s presidency saw relations shift towards a shared ideology, above simply fraternity and solidarity, with Cuba. He frequently lambasted the US embargo on Cuba, visited the island on one of his rare trips overseas, awarded President Miguel Díaz-Canel the highest Mexican decoration available to foreigners, and expanded the Cuban doctors programme in Mexico. This all led to friction with the US administration of Joe Biden (2021-2025), culminating in 2023 when López Obrador boycotted the US-hosted Summit of the Americas due to the exclusion of Cuba, as well as Venezuela and Nicaragua.

Present-day problems

The Cuba question began causing issues for Sheinbaum at the end of last year, when Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau lambasted Mexico for supporting Cuba at the United Nations. It was around this time that Mexico’s shipments of oil to Cuba, a longstanding policy, began to come under greater scrutiny. This escalated in the wake of the US incursion in Venezuela, following which the US cut off Venezuelan oil shipments to the island, meaning Mexico’s provision of oil was even more vital.

Initially, Sheinbaum cast the oil shipments as part of Mexico’s history of relations with Cuba. Then, under pressure to halt the shipments, she tried to distinguish between oil sent under contracts between Cuba and the state-run oil company Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex) and that sent as humanitarian aid, saying on 27 January that contractual shipments had been halted but humanitarian aid would continue. However, just two days later, Trump issued an executive order saying the US would impose sanctions on any country supplying oil to Cuba. Sheinbaum’s hands were tied and she confirmed that all oil shipments to Cuba had been halted.

Sheinbaum has said her government is pursuing “diplomatic avenues” to be able to provide oil to Cuba while avoiding any repercussions for Mexico. While bowing to US pressure to halt the shipments, at least temporarily, Sheinbaum has been clear in her rejection of the measures, describing them as “very unfair” and warning of the impact on the Cuban people. “You cannot strangle people like this,” she declared in a press conference on 9 February. In this way, she is yielding to the demands of Washington while also maintaining solidarity with Cuba.

In the absence of oil, Mexico has been sending other forms of humanitarian aid to Cuba. On 12 February two Mexican navy ships arrived at the port of Havana, carrying over 814 tonnes (t) of food including milk, rice, beans, sardines, meat products, biscuits, canned tuna, vegetable oil, and personal hygiene products. Cuba’s President Díaz-Canel thanked Mexico for the shipments and for its “solidarity, affection, and ever-warm embrace of Cuba”. Sheinbaum has stated that her government will continue sending such aid to the island.

Indeed, on 24 February Mexico’s foreign ministry (SRE) announced it was sending a further 1,193 t of provisions to Cuba, comprising basic food items such as powdered milk and beans. The aid was carried by two Mexican navy vessels: the Papaloapan and the Huasteco. The Papaloapan transported 1,078 t of beans and powdered milk, while the Huasteco carried 92 t of beans and 23 t of other food items. According to the SRE, the final 23 t of humanitarian aid were provided by various social organisations with the support of the CDMX government. The ships were due to arrive to Cuba four days after disembarking from Mexico.

The SRE framed the shipments in the wider context of Mexico providing “assistance to our sister nations in need”, noting aid sent in response to the fires in the US state of California last year and Chile this year, as well as the floods in Texas last year. Again, this indicates the balancing act between ensuring support for Cuba while also downplaying the aid as part of routine, wider efforts to help other nations, including the US.

Sheinbaum has also offered to help in other ways, repeatedly saying Mexico can act as a negotiator between the US and Cuba to help seek a resolution. In a press conference on 12 February Sheinbaum said Mexico could “absolutely” act as an “air bridge” for humanitarian aid to reach Cuba, if Havana requested it. Planes are currently unable to refuel in Cuba due to a shortage of aviation fuel, but Mexico is close enough for planes to refuel there before making the onward journey to Cuba and back. On 18 February she stated that talks were continuing with the US to see whether it is “feasible” for Mexico to mediate between the two countries.

With these acts of solidarity and help, Sheinbaum will hope she can maintain good relations with both Cuba and the US, while also keeping pro-Cuba members of Morena happy.

Morena

Many senior figures in Morena share an ideological affinity with Cuba. This was evident in a meeting on 9 February between the party president, Luisa Alcalde, and secretary general, Carolina Rangel, with Cuba’s ambassador to Mexico, Eugenio Martínez Enríquez. Morena deputies, as well as those from the allied Partido del Trabajo (PT), also received Martínez on 24 February, stressing the links of friendship and cooperation between the two countries.

Cuba concerns

The situation in Cuba has drawn concern from outside Mexico, too. On 25 February Canada’s Foreign Minister Anita Anand and Secretary of State for International Development Randeep Sarai announced CA$8m (US$5.8m) in funding to be released immediately “to scale-up food and nutrition for vulnerable Cubans”, noting that “Cuba is facing rapidly worsening conditions driven by severe fuel shortages, prolonged blackouts and growing barriers to accessing food and health care”. The United Nations has also condemned the fuel blockade and expressed concern about the “foreseeable humanitarian consequences”.